A Quote to Start Things Off

""I'd love to go to Santa Fe at some point, Emmett said, but for the time being, I need to go to New York. The panhandler stopped laughing and adopted a more serious expression. Well. that's life in a nutshell, aint it. Lovin' to go to one place and havin' to go to another. Amor Towles in the Lincoln Highway.

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Pictures of Memories I

Pictures of Memories I
Snow kidding! These "kids" now range from 17 to 23

Friday, January 1, 2010

Hall of Fame Part 4

Happy New Year!

I promise this blog will not always be this baseball intensive. Especially in the winter. But if this blog is still kicking a year from now, I expect you will see a few weeks of Hall of Fame analysis and prognostication.

Today we enter into phase 2 of our look at the 2010 road to Cooperstown.

Phase 1 was to review the accomplishments and the writers voting patterns of the 11 players returning to the ballot from last year. Phase 2 is to review the accomplishments of the 15 players on the ballot for the first time.

Analysis of previous 5 Hall of Fame nominee classes.

In the past 5 years there have been 62 players to find their way on the ballot for the first time. Of those 62, 4 have been elected to the hall on their first opportunity. 6 received more than 5% of the vote but less than the 75% needed for enshrinement. 1/2 of those 6 received less than 5% of the vote in their second year and the other half are still on the ballot for this year. Forty of the 62 players received under 5% of the vote but at least one vote. The remaining 12 players did not receive any votes at all.

If we assume that the 15 players on the ballot for the first time this year will fare in the same pattern as the last 5 years then ...

1 player will be elected to the hall on their first ballot. 1 player will receive more than 5% but less than 75% of the vote and will have a 50/50 shot of being voted off the island in the next election. 10 players will receive at least 1 vote but not enough consideration to return to the ballot next year. 3 players will receive no votes whatsoever.
I'll let you all know on the 6th if the votes followed the pattern or not. Here are the first 8 first time candidate profiles. I'll finish the rest in the next HOF installment.

Roberto Alomar 2B played for 7 teams (Padres, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Mets, White Sox, Diamond Backs) over 17 seasons. Lifetime .300 batting average. More than 2700 hits. More than 200 home runs. Within 25 of the 500 steal mark. 12 All Star appearances. 1 All Star MVP. 10 gold gloves, 4 silver sluggers and 1 alcs MVP. Best MVP voting = 3rd

Kevin Appier P played for 4 teams (Royals, A's, Mets, Angels) over 16 seasons. Won 169 games with lifetime era of 3.74. 6 strikeouts shy of 2000. 1 all star game. Best Cy Young Voting =3rd.

Ellis Burks OF played with 5 teams (Red Sox, Rockies, Giants, Indians, White Sox) over 18 seasons. Life time .291 hitter with over 2100 hits, more than 350 homers and less than 20 steals from the 200 mark. 2 All Star Games, 1 Gold Glove, 2 Silver Sluggers. Best MVP voting =3rd

Andres Galarraga 1B played for 7 teams (Expos, Cardinals, Rockies, Braves, Rangers, Giants, Angels) over 19 seasons. With More than 2300 hits and 1 homer shy of the 400 mark Galaragga hit .288 with 128 stolen bases. Played in 5 all star games, won two gold gloves and two silver sluggers. Best MVP voting 6th (twice).

Pat Hentgen P played for 3 teams (Blue Jays, Cardinals, Orioles)over 14 seasons. Hentgen had 131 career wins, a lifetime era of 4.32 and 1,290 strike outs. 3 All Star appearance winner of the AL Cy Young award in 1996.

Mike Jackson P played for 8 teams (Mariners, Giants, Indians, Phillies, Twins, Reds, Astros, White Sox) over 17 seasons. 3.42 ERA 142 Saves and 1006 Strikeouts. Best MVP voting = 21st.

Eric Karros 1B played for 3 teams (Dodgers A's Cubs) over 14 seasons. A life time .268 hitter Karros ended his career with over 1700 hits and 284 homers. Won the 1992 NL rookie of the year award, 1 Silver Slugger Best MVP Voting Award = 5th.

Ray Lankford OF played for 2 teams (Cardinals, Padres) over 14 seasons. More than 1500 hits with a life time batting average of .272. Hit over 200 homers while swiping over 200 bags. 1 all star game, best MVP voting = 16th.

Thursday, December 31, 2009

New Look for a New Year

It is already the new year on the east coast. But it's still 2009 here in the Midwest.

So here are 3 things for the end of 1 year and the beginning of another.

1. Saw Sherlock Holmes with my wife, her brother, uncle and cousin last night. The 4 of us boys liked it, Amy did not. Actually, she hated it.

2. I will be making some changes to the blog in the weeks to come. I will probably experiment with a few looks before hopefully unveiling a more permanent new look next Thursday on my 1 year blog-o-versary.

3. 2009 was a rough year for our family. Losing my brother in April had a profound impact on the entire year. God is still blessing us, however, and I look forward to what's ahead in 2010.
If you'd like to blog about 2009 or 2010 you can add it to Mr. linky below.



Next Time: Maybe This Year.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Hall of Fame Part 3

This is the third installment in my series of posts previewing the candidates for enshrinement in baseballs hall of fame. To read installment one or two click as needed.



Today I will finish previewing those returning to the ballot this year. Again I will not be stating my preferences for induction until the final post.

Continuing with those returning to the ballot, we start with Harold Baines who is on the ballot for the 4th year. Baines began and finished his MLB career with the Chicago White Sox. He actually played for the pale hose on 3 different occasions (80-89, 96-97, 2000-2001) In between he played with the Texas Rangers, (89,90) 3 stints with the Baltimore Orioles (93-95, 97-99, 2000), Oakland A's (90-92), and the Cleveland Indians in 1999. Baines approached the 3000 hit mark late in his career but finished well under with 2,866 hit 384 homers and had a life time batting average of .289. Baines, a six time all star (85,86,87,89,91, and 99) spent most of the 1980's as an outfielder and spent the 2nd half his career as a DH.

Baines first appeared on the ballot in 2007 appearing on 5.3% of the completed ballots. He had 5.2 % in 2008 and 5.9 % last year.

Analysis and Outlook: With 12 elections remaining, it is much too early to write Baines off entirely. However, just a small decrease in his support over the past 3 years would remove him from the ballot altogether.

Mark McGwire is on his 4th year on the ballot. I would generally tell you what teams he played for and the statistics he compiled over his career, but as McGwire infamously once noted I am not here to talk about the past.

Actually I am here to talk about the past so I will tell you that McGwire played for the Oakland A's form 1986 to 1997 and played for the St. Louis Cardinals from 1997 to 2001. He hit 583 home runs and once held the single season home run record at 70. The first baseman had 1626 career hits with a lifetime batting average of .263. McGwire was the 1987 Rookie of the year, won a gold glove in 1990, silver slugger awards in 92,96,and 98. The 12 time all star (87-92 and 95-2000) was the runner-up for the NL MVP in 1998.

McGwire entered the hall of fame ballot in 2007 with 23.5% of the vote, had 23.6% in 2008 and appeared on 21.6 % of the completed ballots last year.

Anaylisis and Outlook: With career numbers alone McGwire would probably already be in the hall or be at least 30 - 40 more percentage points closer. Allegations and speculation about steroid use and his aforementioned inability to talk about the past has radically cut off his support. I don't expect his numbers to improve anytime soon.

Tim Raines is on the ballot for his 3rd year. He played for the Montreal Expos (1979-1990 and 2001) Chicago White Sox (1991-1995) New York Yankees (1996-1998), Oakland A's (2000), Baltimore Orioles (2001) and finished up with the Florida Marlins in 2002. Raines had 2605 hits, 808 stolen bases and a lifetime batting average of .294. Raines played in seven straight all star games (1981-1987 and was the 1987 all star MVP. He won a Silver Slugger award in 1986 the year he led the National League with a .334 batting average.

Raines first year on the ballot was 2008 when he received 24.3 % of the vote. Last year he was down to 22.6%.

Analysis and Outlook: Receiving over 20% of the vote on your first two ballots is a pretty good way to start your bid for hall of fame induction. The fact that his numbers took a small dip from his first to second year on the ballot could be a little troubling if the pattern continues downward. I think it's more likely that this was a small course correction that happens to most players in the election process. I also feel that Rickey Henderson's election on the first ballot last year lowered his vote total last year but ultimatelt will increase his chances in the years to come as he is such a similar player to Henderson.

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