Hall of Fame Part 4

Happy New Year!

I promise this blog will not always be this baseball intensive. Especially in the winter. But if this blog is still kicking a year from now, I expect you will see a few weeks of Hall of Fame analysis and prognostication.

Today we enter into phase 2 of our look at the 2010 road to Cooperstown.

Phase 1 was to review the accomplishments and the writers voting patterns of the 11 players returning to the ballot from last year. Phase 2 is to review the accomplishments of the 15 players on the ballot for the first time.

Analysis of previous 5 Hall of Fame nominee classes.

In the past 5 years there have been 62 players to find their way on the ballot for the first time. Of those 62, 4 have been elected to the hall on their first opportunity. 6 received more than 5% of the vote but less than the 75% needed for enshrinement. 1/2 of those 6 received less than 5% of the vote in their second year and the other half are still on the ballot for this year. Forty of the 62 players received under 5% of the vote but at least one vote. The remaining 12 players did not receive any votes at all.

If we assume that the 15 players on the ballot for the first time this year will fare in the same pattern as the last 5 years then ...

1 player will be elected to the hall on their first ballot. 1 player will receive more than 5% but less than 75% of the vote and will have a 50/50 shot of being voted off the island in the next election. 10 players will receive at least 1 vote but not enough consideration to return to the ballot next year. 3 players will receive no votes whatsoever.

I'll let you all know on the 6th if the votes followed the pattern or not. Here are the first 8 first time candidate profiles. I'll finish the rest in the next HOF installment.

Roberto Alomar 2B played for 7 teams (Padres, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Mets, White Sox, Diamond Backs) over 17 seasons. Lifetime .300 batting average. More than 2700 hits. More than 200 home runs. Within 25 of the 500 steal mark. 12 All Star appearances. 1 All Star MVP. 10 gold gloves, 4 silver sluggers and 1 alcs MVP. Best MVP voting = 3rd

Kevin Appier P played for 4 teams (Royals, A's, Mets, Angels) over 16 seasons. Won 169 games with lifetime era of 3.74. 6 strikeouts shy of 2000. 1 all star game. Best Cy Young Voting =3rd.

Ellis Burks OF played with 5 teams (Red Sox, Rockies, Giants, Indians, White Sox) over 18 seasons. Life time .291 hitter with over 2100 hits, more than 350 homers and less than 20 steals from the 200 mark. 2 All Star Games, 1 Gold Glove, 2 Silver Sluggers. Best MVP voting =3rd

Andres Galarraga 1B played for 7 teams (Expos, Cardinals, Rockies, Braves, Rangers, Giants, Angels) over 19 seasons. With More than 2300 hits and 1 homer shy of the 400 mark Galaragga hit .288 with 128 stolen bases. Played in 5 all star games, won two gold gloves and two silver sluggers. Best MVP voting 6th (twice).

Pat Hentgen P played for 3 teams (Blue Jays, Cardinals, Orioles)over 14 seasons. Hentgen had 131 career wins, a lifetime era of 4.32 and 1,290 strike outs. 3 All Star appearance winner of the AL Cy Young award in 1996.

Mike Jackson P played for 8 teams (Mariners, Giants, Indians, Phillies, Twins, Reds, Astros, White Sox) over 17 seasons. 3.42 ERA 142 Saves and 1006 Strikeouts. Best MVP voting = 21st.

Eric Karros 1B played for 3 teams (Dodgers A's Cubs) over 14 seasons. A life time .268 hitter Karros ended his career with over 1700 hits and 284 homers. Won the 1992 NL rookie of the year award, 1 Silver Slugger Best MVP Voting Award = 5th.

Ray Lankford OF played for 2 teams (Cardinals, Padres) over 14 seasons. More than 1500 hits with a life time batting average of .272. Hit over 200 homers while swiping over 200 bags. 1 all star game, best MVP voting = 16th.

New Look for a New Year

It is already the new year on the east coast. But it's still 2009 here in the Midwest.

So here are 3 things for the end of 1 year and the beginning of another.

1. Saw Sherlock Holmes with my wife, her brother, uncle and cousin last night. The 4 of us boys liked it, Amy did not. Actually, she hated it.

2. I will be making some changes to the blog in the weeks to come. I will probably experiment with a few looks before hopefully unveiling a more permanent new look next Thursday on my 1 year blog-o-versary.

3. 2009 was a rough year for our family. Losing my brother in April had a profound impact on the entire year. God is still blessing us, however, and I look forward to what's ahead in 2010.
If you'd like to blog about 2009 or 2010 you can add it to Mr. linky below.



Next Time: Maybe This Year.

Hall of Fame Part 3

This is the third installment in my series of posts previewing the candidates for enshrinement in baseballs hall of fame. To read installment one or two click as needed.



Today I will finish previewing those returning to the ballot this year. Again I will not be stating my preferences for induction until the final post.

Continuing with those returning to the ballot, we start with Harold Baines who is on the ballot for the 4th year. Baines began and finished his MLB career with the Chicago White Sox. He actually played for the pale hose on 3 different occasions (80-89, 96-97, 2000-2001) In between he played with the Texas Rangers, (89,90) 3 stints with the Baltimore Orioles (93-95, 97-99, 2000), Oakland A's (90-92), and the Cleveland Indians in 1999. Baines approached the 3000 hit mark late in his career but finished well under with 2,866 hit 384 homers and had a life time batting average of .289. Baines, a six time all star (85,86,87,89,91, and 99) spent most of the 1980's as an outfielder and spent the 2nd half his career as a DH.

Baines first appeared on the ballot in 2007 appearing on 5.3% of the completed ballots. He had 5.2 % in 2008 and 5.9 % last year.

Analysis and Outlook: With 12 elections remaining, it is much too early to write Baines off entirely. However, just a small decrease in his support over the past 3 years would remove him from the ballot altogether.

Mark McGwire is on his 4th year on the ballot. I would generally tell you what teams he played for and the statistics he compiled over his career, but as McGwire infamously once noted I am not here to talk about the past.

Actually I am here to talk about the past so I will tell you that McGwire played for the Oakland A's form 1986 to 1997 and played for the St. Louis Cardinals from 1997 to 2001. He hit 583 home runs and once held the single season home run record at 70. The first baseman had 1626 career hits with a lifetime batting average of .263. McGwire was the 1987 Rookie of the year, won a gold glove in 1990, silver slugger awards in 92,96,and 98. The 12 time all star (87-92 and 95-2000) was the runner-up for the NL MVP in 1998.

McGwire entered the hall of fame ballot in 2007 with 23.5% of the vote, had 23.6% in 2008 and appeared on 21.6 % of the completed ballots last year.

Anaylisis and Outlook: With career numbers alone McGwire would probably already be in the hall or be at least 30 - 40 more percentage points closer. Allegations and speculation about steroid use and his aforementioned inability to talk about the past has radically cut off his support. I don't expect his numbers to improve anytime soon.

Tim Raines is on the ballot for his 3rd year. He played for the Montreal Expos (1979-1990 and 2001) Chicago White Sox (1991-1995) New York Yankees (1996-1998), Oakland A's (2000), Baltimore Orioles (2001) and finished up with the Florida Marlins in 2002. Raines had 2605 hits, 808 stolen bases and a lifetime batting average of .294. Raines played in seven straight all star games (1981-1987 and was the 1987 all star MVP. He won a Silver Slugger award in 1986 the year he led the National League with a .334 batting average.

Raines first year on the ballot was 2008 when he received 24.3 % of the vote. Last year he was down to 22.6%.

Analysis and Outlook: Receiving over 20% of the vote on your first two ballots is a pretty good way to start your bid for hall of fame induction. The fact that his numbers took a small dip from his first to second year on the ballot could be a little troubling if the pattern continues downward. I think it's more likely that this was a small course correction that happens to most players in the election process. I also feel that Rickey Henderson's election on the first ballot last year lowered his vote total last year but ultimatelt will increase his chances in the years to come as he is such a similar player to Henderson.

A cool use for a GPS

It's been a while since I posted a Works for me Wednesday post. I thought of one last week that I thought I would share.

If I have a place to go to during the day and I don't want to be late for it instead of setting an alarm clock I set the address in my GPS. The GPS will tell me what time I will be arriving at my destination. I leave the house as the arrival time on the GPS nears the time I want to arrive. Not the most usual use for a global positioning system but hey it works for me.

To see what works foe others head over to We Are That Family.

Next Time: A New Look for a New Year

Hall of Fame Part 2

This is the second installment in my series on the 2010 BBWWA hall of fame election. There are 3 different phases in this series. Phase 1 is the analysis of returning players to the ballot. This is the second post in phase 1. I will continue to review these players in descending order based on their years in the ballot. Click here to see my analysis of Dave Parker, Bert Blyleven, Dale Murphy and Jack Morris. I also want to reiterate that my analysis is based on previous voting patterns and not my view on the individuals hall of fame worthiness. I will be discussing those points in phase 3.

Don Mattingly is on his 10th year of the ballot. Mattingly played his entire career (1982-1995) as a first baseman for the New York Yankees. In Mattingly's 14 seasons for the Bronx Bombers he hit 222 home runs, maintained a lifetime average of .307 and had 2153 career hits. Mattingly made 6 all star teams, won 9 gold glove awards (85-89 + 91-94) and 3 consecutive silver slugger awards (85-87). He was the American League MVP in 1985 and the runner-up in 1986.

Mattingly has been on the ballot since 2001 garnering 28.2 % of the vote that year. 2001 was also the year he received the most support. He has only been on 20% or more of the ballots twice (the other year being 2002). He has actually lost 1 percentage point of support in the past 5 years (12.8 in 2004 and 11.9 in 2009).



Anaylysis and Outlook. Mattingly's 28.2% in 2001 would have made a good point to build on, instead his % decreases for a few years then increase for a few and then goes back down Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven both had less votes than Mattingly did in 2001 but by 2009 Blyleven had 5 times the votes Mattingly had and Morris had almost 4 times more. With 6 elections left Mattingly's only legitimate chance of being voted in by the BBWAA is by increasing his support about 10 percentage points each year and given his up and down history that does not seem likely.



Andre Dawson is on the ballot for his 9nth year. Dawson played for the Montreal Expos form 1976 to 1986. He played foe the Chicago Cubs from 1987 to 1992. He played 2 years for the Boston Red Sox in 1993 and 1994 and finished his career with the Florida Marlins in 1995 and 1996. Dawson was a lifetime outfielder save his 2 years in the American league where he was a designated hitter. Dawson had a career batting average of .279 and had 2774 hits. He is one of only 6 players to have over 300 home runs (438) and 300 stolen bases (314). Dawson won 6 consecutive gold gloves with the expos (1981-1985) and 2 more with the Cubs (1987-1988). He made 3 consecutive all star teams with Montreal (1981-1983) and 5 consecutive with Chicago (1987-1991). Dawson was good at making a first impression as he won the N.L. Rookie if the year award with the Expos in 1977 and won the NL MVP in 1987 his first year with the Cubs.



Dawson has been on the ballot since 2002 where he received 45.3% of the vote. He was voted for by 50% of the electorate in 2003 and again in 2004. He has received more than 65% support in the last 2 elections receiving his highest total last year with 67% of the vote.



Analysis and Outlook: Dawson previous 8 years on the ballot read like a textbook on how to make the hall. He has increased his % in every year but 2 maintaining 50% in 2004 and going from 61% in 2006 to 56.6 in 2007. With 7 more elections left to him he should easily make the 75% he needs. Also very promising is that everyone who had more votes than him in any of his previous elections has already made the Hall.

Alan Trammell is on the ballot for the ninth year. He played his entire career for the Detroit Tigers from 1977 to 1996. While he played occasional other positions for the Tigers including DH, He predominately played shortstop and did so each season he was in the major leagues. Trammell was a 6 time all star (80, 84,85,87,88, & 90), 4 time gold glove recipient, (80,81,83 and 84), 3 time Silver Slugger winner (87,88 &90) and the 1984 World Series MVP. In 1987 He was runner up for the AL MVP award. Alan hit .285 for the Tigers with 2365 hits and 185 Home Runs.

Like Dawson, Trammel has been on the ballot since 2002. Unlike Dawson, Trammell has never even come close to the 75% needed for election. He was on 15.7% of the ballots in his first year of eligibility, Hit a high water mark of 18.2% in 2008 and was down to 17.4% in last years balloting.

Analysis and outlook: In his 8 past elections Trammels support has been consistently in the teens. This seems to mean that there is no wide spread appeal for putting Trammell into the Hall.

Lee Smith the lone returning relief pitcher is on his 8th year on the ballot. Smith pitched from 1980 to 1997. Beginning with the Chicago Cubs (1980-1987), then playing 2 and a half seasons with the Boston Red Sox (88-90), parts of 4 seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals (90-93). His later years he played on the New York Yankees (93), Baltimore Orioles (94). California Angels (95,96), Cincinnati Reds (96), and Montreal Expos 1997. He had a lifetime ERA of 3.03, 1,251 strike outs and 478 saves. Smith was chosen for 7 all star games (83,87,91-95). He was second in Cy Young voting in 1991 the year he won the first of his 2 consecutive NL Rolaids Relief awards for the Cardinals. He won the AL version of the award in 94 with the Orioles.

Smith has been on the ballot in 2003 when he received 42.3% of the vote. He dropped down to 36.6% of the vote in 2004 and in the last 5 years has seen that percentage rise to 44.5% in the last election.

Analysis and Outlook: Smith's initial vote count and his current standing bode well for eventual enshrinement when viewed separately. Looking at them together makes one wonder why he has only moved up 2 percentage points in 7 elections. If whatever has been keeping him stuck in the 40's resolves himself there is plenty of time for Smith to get to Cooperstown.