Sox Cubs Comparison 62 games into the season

The start of the baseball season is filed with promise.  New players, new coaches, new chapters waiting to be written.  Walking along with promise is expectation and prognostication.  At the beginning of the  season ESPN wrote a piece with how they expected each team to fare for the season.  They projected each teams WL record as well as  their odds of making the playoffs and winning the World Series.  For the purpose of this post I am only concerned with the two Chicago teams.  

The Cubs were projected to finish 89-73 with a 68% of making the playoffs and a 4.8 % chance of winning the World Series.

The White Sox were projected to have their 4th 100+ losing season in a row finishing 61-101 with a 0 % chance of making the playoffs or winning the World Series.

Yesterday the Cubs and the White Sox both finished their 62nd game of the season leaving them both with 100 games to play.  As I write this the Cubs are playing their 63rd game as the Sox have the night off.  The following stats go through the first 62 games and will not be updated if the Cubs finish their game before I finish this post.  

Record                                Cubs                    Sox

After 62 games                    32-30                    33-29

1st 15 games                        7-8                        5-10

Next 16 games                     12-4                      8-8

Next 16 games                     10-6 E                  10-6 E

Last 15 games                       3-12                     9-6

Home games                        18-13                    20-11

Road games                          14-17                    13-18

East                                       11-5                      3-6

Central                                   8-9                       12-5

West                                       6-3                        9-6

Interleague                             7-13                      9-12

Day                                        13-15                     14-15

Night                                      19-15                    19-14

Extra Innings                            4-3                       4-4

1 Run                                       9-7                       12-6

Cubs Sox                                 1-2                       2-1

Post Cubs Sox                          3-12                     9-7

Home                                       0-8                        6-1

Road                                        3-4                        3-6

Bold denotes better winning percentage

During the first 62 games the White Sox are 4 games above .500 and the Cubs are 2 games above .500. The White Sox hold a better record than the Cubs in 11.  The Cubs are ahead in 7 and they tied with each other 1 time.

Baseball reference lists the odds for a team to make the playoffs on a daily basis.  As of yesterday the Cubs had a 61.5 percentage chance of making the post season.  This is 6.5 percentage points lower than ESPN's pre season pick.  The 61.5 breaks down as 6.1 percent chance of winning the division and 55.4 of  being a Wild Card team.  As of yesterday the Cubs had a 2.5% chance of winning the World Series. This is about 1/2 of where they were picked pre-season.

The White Sox according  to the same data have a 52.7% chance of making the playoffs which is exactly 52.7% more that ESPN gave them.    This breaks down as 17.6 % chance of winning the division and 35.1 % of making the Wild Card.  The White Sox are now showing as having a 1.3 % chance of winning the World Series.

In order for ESPN's prediction to hold true the White Sox would need go 28-72 in the next 100 games.  This means they would have to win 5 less games in the next 100 than they did in the first 62.  For the Cubs to match ESPN's predictions The Cubs would need to go 57-43 for the final 100 games which is a .570winning percentage and certainly very doable.