Preview of 2016 HOF 1st time ballot and rev

Each year there players on the Baseball Writers Association of Anaerica (BBWAA) ballot for the first time.  These players have been retired from baseball the requisite amount of years and now get consideration for enshrinement in Cooperstown.  This year there are 15 such players.  Last year there were 17.  Before I preview the 15 players on the ballot for the first time in 2016, lets review the 17 former newbies and see how they did. The 17 from 15 and the 15 from 16 will fall into 4 potential categories  ...

Make it into the HOF on their first ballot by receiving at least 75% of the votes.

Receive enough votes to stay on the ballot for the next election (5%) but not enough for enshrinement in their first year (75%)

Receive some votes but not the 5% needed to appear on subsequent ballots.

Recieve no votes what so ever.

The 17 player on the ballot for the first time in 2015 were ...

all lists in alphabetical order

Look Ma no votes!

Rich Aurilla

Tony Clark

Jermaine Dye

Cliff Floyd 

Brian Giles

Eddie Guardado 

Jason Schmidt

Some but not enough to stay.

Aaron Boone

Carlos Delgado

Darin Erstad

Tom Gordon 

Troy Percival

Maybe Later

Nomar Garciaparra 

Gary Sheffield

HOF Baby!

Randy Johnson 

Pedro Martinez

John Smoltz

It is noteworthy, but not surprising that 7 of the 17 (41 %)1st timers on the ballot failed to get even one vote.  Add that to the 5 who failed to get 5 % or more and you have 71% attrition rate.  In 2014 there were 19 1st timers on the ballot 3 were elected to the hall, 2 received enough votes to stay on the ballot for the next year, 8 received some votes but less than 5 %, and 6 failed to get any votes.  In 2013 none of the 24 appearing on the ballot for the first time were elected in their first year,  6 remained on the ballot for the next year,  8 received some votes but less than 5 % and 10 failed to get any votes.

In the last 3 years 35 % of first time players on the ballot received some votes but not enough votes for future consideration with 38.33% getting no votes at all.  whereas 26.67% were either voted into the HOF on the 1st ballot (10%) or were able to come back the next year (16.67%)

If the percentages hold for the 15 newcomers on this years ballot 1.5 players will be elected on the first ballot and 2.5 players getting enough votes to stay on for the 2017 ballot.  Since there are no half players lets's say 1-2 will be first ballot hallof famers and 2-3 will hang on until next year.  This leaves 11 to not get enough votes to return in 2017.  Again if recent percentages hold 6 will get no votes at all,  and 5 will get some votes but less than 5 % as you peruse the list below imagine which ones will be in what category come Tuesday night

Garret Anderson (Angels,Braves,Dodgers)

Brad Ausmus (Astros,Tigers, Padres, Dodgers)

Luis Castillo (Marlins, Mets, Twins)

David Eckstein (Angels,Cardinals,Padres,Blue Jays, Diamondbacks)

Jim Edmonds (Cardinals,Angels,Cubs,Brewers,Padres,Reds)

Troy Glaus (Angels,BlueJays,Cardinals,Diamondback,Braves)

Ken Griffey Jr. (Mariners, Reds, White Sox)

Mark Grudzielanek (Dodgers,Royals,Expos,Cubs,Cardinals)

Mike Hampton (Astros, Braves Rockies, Mets, Mariners, Diamond Backs)

Trevor Hoffman (Padres,Brewers,Marlins)

Jason Kendall (Pirates,Athletics,Brewers,Royals,Cubs)

Mike Lowell (Marlins,Red Sox, Yankees)

Mike Sweeney (Royals,Mariners,Athletics,Phillies)

Billy Wagner (Astros,Braves,Phillies,Mets,Red Sox)

Randy Winn(Giants,Devil Rays, Mariners,Cardinals,Yankees0

.  

HOF 2016 Ballot Returning Players Preview

The 2016 HOF election results will be revealed at 6 pm EST on January 6th.  I will be reviewing everyone on the ballot and submitting who I would vote for   over the next few days as I have over the past 5 years or so.  Today I look at those returning tot he ballot from previous years.

Note:  In 2014 the years a returning player could be on the ballot was reduced from 15 to 10 with those who had more than 10 years on the ballot grandfathered in to the full 15.  This is why I state how many years each candidate has remaing on the ballot after this year.  Obviously that # become moot, if they are elected, or fail to receive the 5% needed to remain on the ballot.  

The 17 players returning from last years ballot listed from highest percentage of votes received to lowest are ...

Mike Piazza 69.9% of vote in 2015.  4th year on ballot,  Additional time to be on ballot: 6  years. Highest vote total 2015.

Jeff Bagwell 55.7% of vote in 2015. 6th year on ballot with 4 years remaining.  Highest vote total was 59.6% in 2013 his 3rd year of eligibility

Tim Raines 55%  of vote in 2015. 9th year on ballot  with 1 year remaining. Highest vote total  was 2015.

Curt Schilling 39.2% of vote in 2015. 4th year on ballot,  Additional time to be on ballot: 6.  Curt's highest % was in 2015

Roger Clemens   37.5 % of vote in 2015. 4th year on ballot,  Additional time to be on ballot: 6  years. Clemens received his highest % (37.6)  in 2013, his first year on ballot.

Barry Bonds  36.8 % of vote in 2015. 4th  year on ballot,   Additional time to be on ballot: 6  years.  Bonds received his highest %  in 2015

Lee Smith 30.2%  of vote in 2015. 14th year on ballot  with 1  year remaining.  Lee's highest % 50.6  was in 2012, his 10th year on ballot.

Edgar Martinez 27% of vote in 2015. 7th year on ballot  with 3  years remaining. Edgar's  highest %  of 36.5 came  in 2012 his 3rd year of HOF consideration.
his

Alan Trammell  25.1% of vote in 2015. 2016 is his 15th and final  year on ballot.   His highest % , 36.8,  came in 11th year of eligibility (2012) 36.8 in 2012

Mike Mussina 24.6  %  of vote in 2015.  3rd year on ballot  with 7 additional years remaining. Mussina's highest % came in 2015.

Jeff Kent 15.2%  of vote in 2015. 3rd year on ballot  with 7 additional years remaining. Kent's highest % was 15.2 in 2014

Fred McGriff  12.9% of vote in 2015.  7th year on ballot with 3  years remaining  Highest % 23.9 in 2012 (3rd year)

Larry Walker 11.8% of vote in 2015. 6th year on ballot  with 4  years remaining. Larry's highest  % 22.9  came in 2012, his 2nd year on the ballot

Gary Sheffield 11.7 % of vote in 2015. 2nd year on ballot with 8 years remaining.

Mark McGwire 10 % of vote  in 2015. 10th and final  year on ballot,   His highest % 23.7 in 2010 (4th year)

Sammy Sosa received 6.6% of the vote in 2015.  This is 4th year on the ballot with 6 years remaining.  In 2012 Sosa received 12.5%, his highest percentage so far.

Nomar Garciaparra only received 5.5% of the vote in 2015.  2nd year on the ballot with 8 years remaining.

That's it for remaining players.  I will preview first year players tomorrow.

My playoff pics

I have not been paying a lot of attention to baseball this year besides the Cubs and the Sox.  Even so here are my 2015 playoff predictions

AL Wildcard Astros over Yankees

ALDS Bluejays over Rangers

Astros over Royals

ALCS Astros over Bluejays

NL Wildcard Cubs over Pirates

NlLDS Cubs over Cardinals

Dodgers over Mets

NLCS Cubs over Dodgers

World Series

Cubs over Astros

I know it's a stretch.  But I like the idea of the Cubs and Sox beating the same team to win the World Series ten years apart

If the NFC playoffs were today 10/5/15

Now that 4 weeks are in the books in the AFC (the Monday nigh game is 2 NFC rivals) I can tell you what would happen in the AFC if the playoffs began today.

Division Champions

NFC East Dallas Cowboys (winner of 3 team tiebreaker) (2-2)

Week 4 result Lost to New Orleans (1-3) 26-20

Week  5 opponent New England 3-0

NFC North Green Bay Packers (4-0)

Week 4 Result: Beat San Francisco (1-3) 17-3

Week  5 opponent St. Louis* (2-2)

NFC South Carolina Panthers (winner of 2 team tiebreaker)(4-0)

 

Week 4 result Beat Tampa Bay)37-23

Week  5 Bye

NFC West Arizona Cardinals (3-1)

Week 4 result Lost to St. Louis (2-2) 24-22

Week  5 opponent @Detroit (0-4)

Wild Card

Atlanta Falcons (4-0)

Week 4 result Beat Houston(1-3) 48-21
Week % opponent Washington 2-2

St. Louis Rams 2-2 (winner of 5 team tiebreaker)

Week 4 result Beat Arizona (3-1) 24-22

Week  5 opponent @Green Bay (4-0)

FAST FACT Each current nfc playoff bound team takes on an opponent with either 0 , 2 or 4 losses.   

 

NFL : If the playoffs were today 10/5/15 AFC

Now that 4 weeks are in the books in the AFC (the Monday nigh game is 2 NFC rivals) I can tell you what would happen in the AFC if the playoffs began today.

Division Champions

AFC East New England Patriots (3-0)

Week 4 result BYE

Week  5 opponent @Dallas (2-2)

AFC North Cincinatti Bengals (4-0)

Week 4 Result: Beat Kansas City (1-3) 36-21

Week  5 opponent Seattle* (1-2)

AFC South Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

Week 4 result Beat Jacksonville (1-3) 16-13

Week  5 opponent @Houston (1-3)

AFC West Denver Broncos (4-0)

Week 4 result Beat Minnesota (2-2) 23-20

Week  5 opponent @Oakaland (2-2)

Wild Card

New York Jets (3-1)

Week 4 result Beat Miami(1-3) 27-14

Week  5 BYE

Buffalo Bills 2-2 (winner of 4 team tiebreaker)

Week 4 result Lost to New York Giants (2-2) 24-10

Week  5 opponent @Tennessee (1-2)

FAST FACT 80% of current afc playoff bound teams play on the road in week 5. Although all of their opponents are .500 are under.  

*Seattle plays Detroit tonight so record will change before Bengals matchup