1-3 Teams going to the playoffs in the 17 game era of the NFL

There have been many changes to the NFL in my lifetime:  

• The first AFL NFL championship game was in 1967 (retconned to be called the Super Bowl in 1969).
•  The merger of the AFL AND NFL into the NFL in 1970.
• The expansion from 26 teams to 28 teams in 1976.
• Switching in 1978 from a 14-game season to a 16-game season, and switching from 8 playoff teams to 10.
• Adding 2 more playoff teams in 1990 for a total of 12
• Expanding from 28 to 30 teams in 1995
• Expanding from 30 to 31  teams in 1999, and then to its current number (32) in 2001.
• With the change to 32 teams in 2001, the conferences were realigned to have 4 divisions with 4 teams each.
• In 2020 2 more playoff teams were added to make for a current total of 14 teams (4 division champions and 3 wild card teams from each conference).

2021 marked the most recent change which was an addition of 1 more regular season game for a total of 17. The 2024 season is the 4th year of the 17-game schedule.  

This latest change has been a little difficult for me to adapt to.  Before I explain why, let me provide some context.   From 1978 to 2020 you could easily divide the 16-game season into 4-game quarters.  After 4 weeks of football, you could look at your team's record and make an educated guess as to how your season might go especially if your team started 0-4  or 1-3.  Only the 1992 Chargers have ever started 0-4 and made it to the playoffs.  Since 1990 only 14% of teams since 1990 have started 1-3 and made it to the playoffs.  The difficulty for me has been getting used to the fact that the 4th-week results are no longer 1/4 of the season's results.  This of course doesn't mean they are not a good indicator of progress.

I was watching the Bears Rams game today where both teams shared a 1-2 record at kickoff.  The announcers were talking about the 4-game indicator and the difficulty of starting 1-3 which one team unless in the case of a tie would be by the end of the game.  After the Bears were victorious moving on to a 2-2 record and leaving the Rams with a 1-3 start, I got to thinking about if the change from 16 to 17 games and the addition of 2 more playoff teams would increase the chances of teams starting 1-3 in making the playoffs.  

In the small sample size of the past 3 completed seasons, there have been 25 teams that started 1-3 (10 in 21-22, 7 in 22-23, and 8 last season). In 21-22, 3 of the 10 (30%) made the playoffs.  This was more than double the average since 1990.  However, no 1-3 team in the 2  17-game seasons that followed has made it to the postseason.  This is a percentage of 12% which is lower than the average since 1990.  It is too early to tell if the 17-game 14 playoff team system will mean more playoff appearances for teams with 1-3 starts.  As it stands now, an average of 1 team per year makes the playoffs with the new format. 

If that stat would hold true this year, I think that team could be the Los Angeles Rams.  Rams Quarterback Matthew Stafford in his 16th season in the NFL looked pretty good against my Bears and all I can say is I'm glad we don't have to see him twice a year anymore like we did when he was with the Lions.  With today's loss, he's just 12-10 against Chicago but that record includes a 6-game win streak against us from September 2013 to January 2016.  

Stafford isn't the only reason why I think the Rams may make the playoffs after a 1-3 start. Like the Bears, the Ram's only losses this year have been on the road.  For the next 3 weeks, they will be playing at home.  The Rams were not near full strength today and hopefully, their injured stars will get healthy during the homestand.  The Rams looked good on both offense and defense today but had to attempt 5 field goals making 4, and scoring only 1 touchdown.  I believe the Rams can improve on their red zone efficiency as the season continues and get it to the level it was last year.

I think the Bears would have had a more difficult chance at making the playoffs with a 1-3 start than the Rams will.  Starting 2-2 doesn't come close to ensuring a playoff spot, but this victory against a solid hungry team is definitely a step in that direction.  

Batting .500 on first round of very biased MLB playoff predictions

Right before the MLB playoffs began I wrote down my predictions for the playoffs and posted them here.

I picked the White Sox to win it all, which might seem the ultimate heart instead of head choice, but I 80% believed that the Sox could be the 2021 World Series Champs.

Of course, this was not meant to be.  The Astros beat the White Sox in 4.  It was a series of blowouts with Houston winning 3 of the blowouts and the Sox winning only game 3.  The White Sox had their chances leading 3 0f the 4 games but the Astros led all 4 games and their hitting was relentless.

In my other ALDS prediction I correctly picked the Red Sox to beat the  Tampa Bay Rays in their AL East rivalry. I also correctly picked the NL Wild Card (and 2020 reigning World Series champ) LA Dodgers over their NL west rival over the San Francisco Giants. 

In the pick I felt less certain about I did pick the Brewers to beat the Braves in the other NLDS and I was quite wrong about that.  (Fun fact: Both the Brewers and the Braves once called Milwaukee County Stadium their home. ) It's just as well as the Dodgers Braves NLCS match-up is a rematch of my the first baseball my game my Dad ever attended.  This was back when the Dodgers played in Brooklyn and Jackie Robinson played for them and the Braves were playing in Milwaukee.

The Red Sox lost game 1 in the ALCS and the Dodgers Braves NLCS gets underway today,  Now that the White Sox are out of the mix, I am not as invested in the results but I would not be surprised if any of these teams were to win the World Series this year.

  

My Very Biased Playoff Predictions

 As both the NL Wild Card and AL Wild Card games are in the books time for my hopes and dreams for the rest of the playoffs.  Predictions are too string of a word, but I will take credit for any of these picks that turn out right as I have the courage of my convictions to post them here.

National League 

Dodgers vs Giants

I pick the Dodgers,

Brewers vs, Braves.

Ever since I lived 2 hours from Atlanta back when the Braves won their World Series in the last century I have been a pretty big Braves supporter from afar.  That's not true exactly.  I have loved the Braves ever since the days of hammering Hank Aaron who remains my favorite ball player who never wore a Chicago uniform. That being said I think the Brewers will beat the Braves in a close series.

Dodgers vs. Brewers

I am a little torn here and will explain my reasoning more when I get to my World Series pick but suffice it to say I'll pick the Dodgers.

American League

Rays vs. Red Sox. 

 The Rays were very impressive in a very impressive division.  I think the Red Sox will find a way to skate past Tampa.

White Sox vs. Astros.  

In a rematch of the 2005 World Series the former NL Astros play my beloved White Sox.  I hope with all the hope I can muster that Houston will have a problem and the pale hose will prevail.

White Sox vs. Red Sox.  

Let me boldly assert that the Sox will definitely win this match-up.  The question is what color will these victorious Sox be adorned with,  Again my hope is that the White Sox will prevail.  

2021 World Series Pick

White Sox vs. Dodgers

If the White Sox do make it to the World Series my preference would be they play the Brewers.  I live less than 2 hours from each ball park and would try to get tickets without breaking my bank account. However I love the symmetry of the White Sox beating the Astro's and the Red Sox as they did in 2005 and then avenging their last World Series defeat in 1959 by beating the reigning champion Dodgers.  

It could happen and in October anything can happen, so why not that?!!!? Go Go White Sox!

Note: I Just remembered that Hank Aaron started and finished his playing days in Milwaukee. He started with the Braves, moved to Atlanta with them, and then finished his career with the Brew Crew. 

White Sox Top 5 Moments from 2020

 Thanks White Sox.com for this video showing 5 great moments from the 2020 season. 

 

# 5 Luca Giolito wins game #1 of playoffs against Oakland A's

#4 Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez hit back to back to back to back homeruns against the Cardinals.

#3 Jose Abreu Hits 3 homers in a row against Cubs.

#2 Lucas Giolito no hits the Pirates for 19th White Sox No Hitter.

#1 White Sox clinch first playoff berth since 2008.

If the playoffs started today. . .

The baseball season is somewhere between 1/3 and 1/4 finished.  My team (The White Sox ) are the worst team in the majors and for that reason and others I have not been paying a lot of attention to the season.  What I like to do from time to time is look at the current  regular season like it just ended for the year and extrapolate what would happen if the playoffs began today.

The current playoff format is this.  The  3 division champions are seeded (put in order) based on their record and the teams with the next best records would be the wild card teams.  The 2 wild card teams would play each other in a 1 game series then the wild card winner would play the # 1 seed in a 5 game format and the #2 and #3 teams would play each other.  The winners of the divisional series face off in a championship series which is best of 7 games.  these 3 series (wild card, divisional and League championship) take place simultaneously in the American and National leagues.  The winners of the NLCS and ALCS then match up in a best of 7 World Series.

If the playoffs were to start today, the records at the end of yesterday would determine the playoff pairing.

In the American League the seeding would be

1. New York Yankees East Division 31-13 .705
2.Houston Astros West Division 30-18 .625
3. Cleveland Indians Central Division 22-23 .489

Wild Card 1 Boston Red Sox 32-15 .681
Wild Card 2 Seattle Mariners 27-19 .587

A quick perusal of those records and you see that the Red Sox have the 2nd best record in the American league and yet they are only a wild card.  You may also see that the Res Sox and the Mariners' both have a much better record than the Indians yet the Indians are a better seed, There are actually 2 more teams (Angels and Athletics) who have a better record than the Indians and they are not even in the playoffs.  That is because none of those 4 teams play in the A.L. Central and the Indians are the best team currently in that division despite their losing record. As for the Red Sox they may have the 2nd best record in the AL but the team with the best record (The Yankees) is in the Eastern Division with them. 

If the playoffs were today The Yankees would host a 5 game series against thee winner of the wild card game between the Red Sox and The Mariners.  The winner of that series would then play in the league championship series against the winner of the Houston Astros and the Cleveland Indian series. 

In the National League the seeding stacks up like this ...

1. Atlanta Braves East Division 28-18 .609
2. Milwaukee Brewers Central Division 29-19 .604
3. Colorado Rockies West Division 26-22 .542

Wild Card 1 Philadelphia Phillies 27-18 .600
Wild Card 2 St. Louis Cardinals 26-19 .578

4 mores  teams the Cubs, Pirates, Mets and Nationals all have records better than the Rockies but if the playoffs began today they would not make it because none of them play in the N.L. West.

The Braves would hos the Phillies - Cardinals Wild Card winner and the winner there would play the Brewers Rockies winner with that winner heading to the World Series. 

From time to time I will come back here and tell you the playoff match ups if the Playoffs began today.

playoff beard day 4

The Blackhawks are 0-1 since clinching the playoffs Sunday night.  They have 5 games remaining in the regular season.

Playoff beard day 2

3/28/2016

The Chicago Blackhawks clinched the playoffs yesterday, so this is officially the 2nd day of my playoff beard.  The Blackhawks would play the St. Louis Blues if the playoffs began today.

At this point I plan to shave my beard when 1 of the following 2 events transpire

A) The Black Hawks win 16 2016 playoff games and win their 4th Stanley Cup in 7 years.

OR

B) They lose 4 playoff games in the same playoff series.

So the end of my playoff beard posts will contain a countdown like this,

Beard goes in 16 Wins or 4 more losses to (team they are currently playing).

So if the Hawks do end up playing the Blues and end up taking the Blues to a game 7. 

The countdown the day before the game would read

Beard goes in 13 more playoff wins or 1 more loss to the Blues.

If the Blackhawks beat the Blues in game 7 the countdown would read

Beard goes in 12 more playoff wins or 4 more losses to Next opponent

I am sure I over explained the crud out of that.  But you probably get it.  

Playoff beard day 1

The Chicago Blackhawks qualified for the NHL playoffs this evening with a win over Vancouver.  This means that thus starts my playoff beard.  I shaved this morning prior to going to church for Easter Sunday.

I do not plan until shaving again until the Hawks are finished in the playoffs.  That means until they lose a playoff series or win 16 playoff games and repeat as NHL champs whichever

 comes first until then I'm on the road to beard city.

The Blackhawks beat the Canucks 3-2 to bring their record to 44-25-7.  This gave them 95 points so far for the season.  The Colorado Avalanche, who are currently the 9th place team in the Westertn Conference do not have enough points to overtake the Hawks even if they (the Avalanche) were to win their remains 7 games.  This means that the Blackhawks will compete in the playoffs.

The Hawks still have 6 regular season games remaining before the playoffs begin.  If the playoffs began today they would play the St. Louis Blues in the opening round.  They are 2-2 against the Blues this season with 1 regular season matchup against them in April remaining on the schedule.

If the NFC playoffs were today 10/5/15

Now that 4 weeks are in the books in the AFC (the Monday nigh game is 2 NFC rivals) I can tell you what would happen in the AFC if the playoffs began today.

Division Champions

NFC East Dallas Cowboys (winner of 3 team tiebreaker) (2-2)

Week 4 result Lost to New Orleans (1-3) 26-20

Week  5 opponent New England 3-0

NFC North Green Bay Packers (4-0)

Week 4 Result: Beat San Francisco (1-3) 17-3

Week  5 opponent St. Louis* (2-2)

NFC South Carolina Panthers (winner of 2 team tiebreaker)(4-0)

 

Week 4 result Beat Tampa Bay)37-23

Week  5 Bye

NFC West Arizona Cardinals (3-1)

Week 4 result Lost to St. Louis (2-2) 24-22

Week  5 opponent @Detroit (0-4)

Wild Card

Atlanta Falcons (4-0)

Week 4 result Beat Houston(1-3) 48-21
Week % opponent Washington 2-2

St. Louis Rams 2-2 (winner of 5 team tiebreaker)

Week 4 result Beat Arizona (3-1) 24-22

Week  5 opponent @Green Bay (4-0)

FAST FACT Each current nfc playoff bound team takes on an opponent with either 0 , 2 or 4 losses.   

 

NFL : If the playoffs were today 10/5/15 AFC

Now that 4 weeks are in the books in the AFC (the Monday nigh game is 2 NFC rivals) I can tell you what would happen in the AFC if the playoffs began today.

Division Champions

AFC East New England Patriots (3-0)

Week 4 result BYE

Week  5 opponent @Dallas (2-2)

AFC North Cincinatti Bengals (4-0)

Week 4 Result: Beat Kansas City (1-3) 36-21

Week  5 opponent Seattle* (1-2)

AFC South Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

Week 4 result Beat Jacksonville (1-3) 16-13

Week  5 opponent @Houston (1-3)

AFC West Denver Broncos (4-0)

Week 4 result Beat Minnesota (2-2) 23-20

Week  5 opponent @Oakaland (2-2)

Wild Card

New York Jets (3-1)

Week 4 result Beat Miami(1-3) 27-14

Week  5 BYE

Buffalo Bills 2-2 (winner of 4 team tiebreaker)

Week 4 result Lost to New York Giants (2-2) 24-10

Week  5 opponent @Tennessee (1-2)

FAST FACT 80% of current afc playoff bound teams play on the road in week 5. Although all of their opponents are .500 are under.  

*Seattle plays Detroit tonight so record will change before Bengals matchup

Sports Catechism: NHL: 2 teams are 4 wins away from 2015 Stanley Cup

Q: What is a catechism

A: A summary of the principles of Christian religion in the form of questions and answers, used for the instruction of Christians. It is also a series of fixed questions, answers, or precepts used for instruction in other situations.

Q.  Why a sport's catechism?
A: Because sports loyalty is sometimes described or lived out in spiritual terms.  
Examole.  The Cubs faithful were delighted with the late inning heroics in today's game.  

Q: What is the Stanley Cup?

A: It is the Championip Trophy of the National Hockey Leagu (NHL)

Q:  How many NHL teams are there? 
A: 30.  The 30 teams are divided into 2 conferences (Western and Eastern)  and divided further into divsions


Q: What is required to win the Stanley Cup

A: 16 playoff wins

Q:  How many teams go to the playoffs?

A:16

Q: What is the playoff format?

A: The top 3 teams in each division qualify for the Playoffs.  The next best 2 teams in each conference qualify as wild cards.  So each division can have as many as 5 and as few as 3 teams participating in the post season.  The 16 teams are seeded as the top 3 teams from each divison 1-3  respectively and the wild card teams seeded 4th.  The division champion in each conference with the better record plays the wild card team with the worse record in the 1-4 match ups.

Q: Which teams qualified for the playoffs this year.

A: In the Atlantic division of the Eastern Conference the,Montreal CaLightinnadiens were seeded 1st, Tampa Bay Lightning 2nd, Detroit Red WIngs 3rd and the Ottawa Senators were the first Eastern Wild card: In the Eastern Conference's Metropolitan Divison 1st was New York Rangers, 2nd Washington Capitals, 3rd New York Islanders and Pittsburg Penguins as the 2nd Eastern Wild Card.  Montreal drew Ottawa , Leaving New York for the Penguins, and the 2nd and third teams in each division faced each other.  In the Western Conference's Central division 5 teams made the playoffs the top 3 finishers were (in order) St. Louis (Blues), Nashville (Predators) and Chicago (Black Hawks) .  3The Western Conference wildcard teams from the Central were in order Minnesota (Willd) and Winnipeg (Jets) The Pacific divison top 3 finishers were the Ducks (Anaheim) Canucks (Vancouver) and Flames (Calgary).  The Blues drew the Wild leaving the Jets for the Ducks.

Q: The first team to win 16 games wins the Stanley  Cup how does that work.

A: A series of 4 rounds of playoff games matchups where the first teams to win 4 games go on to the next round.

Q: How many teams are left now:

A: Two

Q: How did the first round play out

In the East

Canadiens 4 Senators   2
Lightning    4 Redwings 3
Rangers     4 Penguins  1
Capitals     4  Islanders  3

In the West

Wild             4 Blues        2
Blackhawks 4 Predators 2 
Ducks          4 Jets          0  
Flames        4 Canucks   2

This left 8 teams remaining each looking for 12 more wins

Q: What happened in the next 2 rounds"

In Round 2 The Lighting beat the Canadiens in 6 games, Where the Rangers need 7 to advance past the Capitals.  The Ducks doused the Flames Stanley Cup chances in 5 games.  The Blackhawks swept the Wild in 4.  
4 teams remained with 8 more wins needed for the Cup.  

The Conefernce Finals took 7 games to settle with the road teams (Lightning and Blackhawks) each beating the home squads (Rangers and Ducks).

Q: Which team has the home ice in the FInals?
A; Tampa Bay

Q: What is the Playoff record for each of the remaining teams in the last 10 seasons excluding this one
A: Lightning 5 apperance in 10 years 2 straight playoff appearance (including this year)

1 Stanley Cup Championship 03-04
3 Conference Quarter Final losses ( 05-06,06-07,13-14)
1 Conference Final loss 10-11
Total playoff wins in last 10 season 30 plus 12 this year for total of 42

Blackhawks 6 appearance in 10 years, 7 straight playoff appearances (including this year)
2 Stanley Cup Championships (9-10 and12-13)
2 Conference Final losses (08-09 and 13-14)
2 Conference Quarter Final Losses (10-11 and 11-12)
Total playoff wins in last 10 season 57 plus 12 this year for total of 69