Scott, Steve - This Sad Music

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2016 HOF . IF I had a ballot.

In late 2009 after I started this blog, I began previewing the HOF class for 2010.  I took 2 years off in 2012 and 2013.  I probably still did it, but I didn't post them on line.  My process is this,  first I preview those returning to the ballot  and then I preview those new to the ballot,

Then finally I list out who I would vote for if I had a ballot.  But I actually do a little more than that. Since the official ballot allows for 10 selections I always start with the idea of who I would vote to if I had to pick 10 players and then order my selections by saying who the 10th player would be and who the 9th player would be and so on,  When I get to the point of who I would vote for if I could vote for any # of players between 1 and 10 I announce that as my official ballot but then keep on counting down until I imagine I could only vote for 1 player.

This year there has been a lot of discussion on line about the limit of 10.  I think 10 is a fine limit and my official ballot has never been more than 8.  But this year I will start  if writers were allowed 12 votes and work my way down from there.  The reason why I do this is two fold. 1 every year when I research my selections  I do it mostly with pen and paper and generally the only notes I have from the previous years are the blog posts themselves.  Which means I am often hard pressed to remember who was thinking about at 11.  Last year 4 people got elected and they were on my list so knowing who was on the cusp of making it last year would be helpful.  The second reason is that the extra votes allow me a little leeway in making my choices which is evidenced by my first choice.

If I were allowed to vote for 12 players elgible for the 2016 HOF class. My12th vote would go to Garret Anderson (Anderson was not on the ballot last year).  There are certainly other players on the ballot who I normally would consider before Anderson.  Larry Walker has been in my top 10 in other years for example.  However I would choose Anderson for 1 reason only.  I have a friend named Garret Anderson and if you ever get a chance to nominate a friend into the HOF, I think you should!

If I were allowed to vote for 11 players, my 11th vote would go to Mike Mussina (I did not vote for Mussina last year).  Mussina is definitely worth of consideration in the hall. He just falls short of my top 10.

If I were allowed to vote for exactly 10 players, my 10th vote would go to Jim Edmonds.  (Edmonds is on the ballot for the 1st time this year)

If I could only vote for exactly 9 players my 9th vote would go to Trevor Hoffman.  (Hoffman is a first timer as well). I may consider Hoffman on my official unofficial ballot in years to come, but I don't feel comfortable support candidacy until my 3rd choice in this years ballots HOF fate is decided)

My 8th choice if I could vote for 8 would be Allen Trammel  (Allen was not in my top 10 last year) .  I have alway been on the fence about Trammel,  Ihave him in my top 8 this year as a sense of urgency since this is his last year on the ballot.

My 7th choice on a 7 player ballot would be Edgar Martinez.  (Martinez was 10th on my list in 2015).  I have no problem voting for a lifelong DH in the HOF my main reason for not having him any higher is that was consistently the 2nd or 3rd biggest offensive producer on his team.

In my 4 previous ballots, my 6th and 5th choices have appeared 2 times each in the position right before my official unofficial ballot.  That is because, in my mind they are both inches shy of being so HOF worthy that I would link their name with mine.  This year # 6 is Mike Piazza (9 last year) and # 5 is the crime dog himself , Fred McGriff (McGriff was not in my top 10 last year.)

If I were given a HOF ballot, my ballot would contain 4 names.  Th 4th name would be Jeff Bagwell.  (Jeff was 7th on my list of 8 players on my  official unofficial ballot last year.

If I was given a HOF ballot and told to vote for only 3 players, the 3rd player would be Lee Smith (he was my 5th choice last year) .  Relievers and Designated hitters get discriminated on by many voters and it is a shame that Smith is not yet in and does not figure to get in on the writer's ballot.

If I could only vote for 2 players in the HOF, it would be very easy to pick those 2.  #2 would be Ken Griffey Jr.(This is his first year on the ballot.

#1 would be Tim Raines.  (Raines was my 2nd choice in 2015, thrird choice in 2014, 1st choice  back in 2011 and 2nd choice  in 2010) Raines should already be in by now.  he only has 2 more years to go from his 55% of the vote last year to the 75% needed,

That is who I would vote for.  Here are my predictions for how I think the vote went.

I think 3 of the following 5 players will be elected to the Hall this year.  Well, Ken Griffey is a lock.
So actually 2 of  Raines, Bagwell, Piazza and Hoffman.  My heart says Bagwell and Raines my head says Piazza and either Bagwell or Hoffman.

Preview of 2016 HOF 1st time ballot and rev

Each year there players on the Baseball Writers Association of Anaerica (BBWAA) ballot for the first time.  These players have been retired from baseball the requisite amount of years and now get consideration for enshrinement in Cooperstown.  This year there are 15 such players.  Last year there were 17.  Before I preview the 15 players on the ballot for the first time in 2016, lets review the 17 former newbies and see how they did. The 17 from 15 and the 15 from 16 will fall into 4 potential categories  ...

Make it into the HOF on their first ballot by receiving at least 75% of the votes.

Receive enough votes to stay on the ballot for the next election (5%) but not enough for enshrinement in their first year (75%)

Receive some votes but not the 5% needed to appear on subsequent ballots.

Recieve no votes what so ever.

The 17 player on the ballot for the first time in 2015 were ...

all lists in alphabetical order

Look Ma no votes!

Rich Aurilla

Tony Clark

Jermaine Dye

Cliff Floyd 

Brian Giles

Eddie Guardado 

Jason Schmidt

Some but not enough to stay.

Aaron Boone

Carlos Delgado

Darin Erstad

Tom Gordon 

Troy Percival

Maybe Later

Nomar Garciaparra 

Gary Sheffield

HOF Baby!

Randy Johnson 

Pedro Martinez

John Smoltz

It is noteworthy, but not surprising that 7 of the 17 (41 %)1st timers on the ballot failed to get even one vote.  Add that to the 5 who failed to get 5 % or more and you have 71% attrition rate.  In 2014 there were 19 1st timers on the ballot 3 were elected to the hall, 2 received enough votes to stay on the ballot for the next year, 8 received some votes but less than 5 %, and 6 failed to get any votes.  In 2013 none of the 24 appearing on the ballot for the first time were elected in their first year,  6 remained on the ballot for the next year,  8 received some votes but less than 5 % and 10 failed to get any votes.

In the last 3 years 35 % of first time players on the ballot received some votes but not enough votes for future consideration with 38.33% getting no votes at all.  whereas 26.67% were either voted into the HOF on the 1st ballot (10%) or were able to come back the next year (16.67%)

If the percentages hold for the 15 newcomers on this years ballot 1.5 players will be elected on the first ballot and 2.5 players getting enough votes to stay on for the 2017 ballot.  Since there are no half players lets's say 1-2 will be first ballot hallof famers and 2-3 will hang on until next year.  This leaves 11 to not get enough votes to return in 2017.  Again if recent percentages hold 6 will get no votes at all,  and 5 will get some votes but less than 5 % as you peruse the list below imagine which ones will be in what category come Tuesday night

Garret Anderson (Angels,Braves,Dodgers)

Brad Ausmus (Astros,Tigers, Padres, Dodgers)

Luis Castillo (Marlins, Mets, Twins)

David Eckstein (Angels,Cardinals,Padres,Blue Jays, Diamondbacks)

Jim Edmonds (Cardinals,Angels,Cubs,Brewers,Padres,Reds)

Troy Glaus (Angels,BlueJays,Cardinals,Diamondback,Braves)

Ken Griffey Jr. (Mariners, Reds, White Sox)

Mark Grudzielanek (Dodgers,Royals,Expos,Cubs,Cardinals)

Mike Hampton (Astros, Braves Rockies, Mets, Mariners, Diamond Backs)

Trevor Hoffman (Padres,Brewers,Marlins)

Jason Kendall (Pirates,Athletics,Brewers,Royals,Cubs)

Mike Lowell (Marlins,Red Sox, Yankees)

Mike Sweeney (Royals,Mariners,Athletics,Phillies)

Billy Wagner (Astros,Braves,Phillies,Mets,Red Sox)

Randy Winn(Giants,Devil Rays, Mariners,Cardinals,Yankees0

.  

HOF 2016 Ballot Returning Players Preview

The 2016 HOF election results will be revealed at 6 pm EST on January 6th.  I will be reviewing everyone on the ballot and submitting who I would vote for   over the next few days as I have over the past 5 years or so.  Today I look at those returning tot he ballot from previous years.

Note:  In 2014 the years a returning player could be on the ballot was reduced from 15 to 10 with those who had more than 10 years on the ballot grandfathered in to the full 15.  This is why I state how many years each candidate has remaing on the ballot after this year.  Obviously that # become moot, if they are elected, or fail to receive the 5% needed to remain on the ballot.  

The 17 players returning from last years ballot listed from highest percentage of votes received to lowest are ...

Mike Piazza 69.9% of vote in 2015.  4th year on ballot,  Additional time to be on ballot: 6  years. Highest vote total 2015.

Jeff Bagwell 55.7% of vote in 2015. 6th year on ballot with 4 years remaining.  Highest vote total was 59.6% in 2013 his 3rd year of eligibility

Tim Raines 55%  of vote in 2015. 9th year on ballot  with 1 year remaining. Highest vote total  was 2015.

Curt Schilling 39.2% of vote in 2015. 4th year on ballot,  Additional time to be on ballot: 6.  Curt's highest % was in 2015

Roger Clemens   37.5 % of vote in 2015. 4th year on ballot,  Additional time to be on ballot: 6  years. Clemens received his highest % (37.6)  in 2013, his first year on ballot.

Barry Bonds  36.8 % of vote in 2015. 4th  year on ballot,   Additional time to be on ballot: 6  years.  Bonds received his highest %  in 2015

Lee Smith 30.2%  of vote in 2015. 14th year on ballot  with 1  year remaining.  Lee's highest % 50.6  was in 2012, his 10th year on ballot.

Edgar Martinez 27% of vote in 2015. 7th year on ballot  with 3  years remaining. Edgar's  highest %  of 36.5 came  in 2012 his 3rd year of HOF consideration.
his

Alan Trammell  25.1% of vote in 2015. 2016 is his 15th and final  year on ballot.   His highest % , 36.8,  came in 11th year of eligibility (2012) 36.8 in 2012

Mike Mussina 24.6  %  of vote in 2015.  3rd year on ballot  with 7 additional years remaining. Mussina's highest % came in 2015.

Jeff Kent 15.2%  of vote in 2015. 3rd year on ballot  with 7 additional years remaining. Kent's highest % was 15.2 in 2014

Fred McGriff  12.9% of vote in 2015.  7th year on ballot with 3  years remaining  Highest % 23.9 in 2012 (3rd year)

Larry Walker 11.8% of vote in 2015. 6th year on ballot  with 4  years remaining. Larry's highest  % 22.9  came in 2012, his 2nd year on the ballot

Gary Sheffield 11.7 % of vote in 2015. 2nd year on ballot with 8 years remaining.

Mark McGwire 10 % of vote  in 2015. 10th and final  year on ballot,   His highest % 23.7 in 2010 (4th year)

Sammy Sosa received 6.6% of the vote in 2015.  This is 4th year on the ballot with 6 years remaining.  In 2012 Sosa received 12.5%, his highest percentage so far.

Nomar Garciaparra only received 5.5% of the vote in 2015.  2nd year on the ballot with 8 years remaining.

That's it for remaining players.  I will preview first year players tomorrow.

My playoff pics

I have not been paying a lot of attention to baseball this year besides the Cubs and the Sox.  Even so here are my 2015 playoff predictions

AL Wildcard Astros over Yankees

ALDS Bluejays over Rangers

Astros over Royals

ALCS Astros over Bluejays

NL Wildcard Cubs over Pirates

NlLDS Cubs over Cardinals

Dodgers over Mets

NLCS Cubs over Dodgers

World Series

Cubs over Astros

I know it's a stretch.  But I like the idea of the Cubs and Sox beating the same team to win the World Series ten years apart