Illinois Football 2024 Season Analytics Part II

STATS SUNDAY

This is a continuation of last week's Stats Sunday post which can be found here. It is essentially a look at Illinois' Season Record by adding the w/l record of each opponent before they played Illinois, The result of the Illinois game (win or loss), and their record after the Illinois game.  I am calling the stat Opponent BDA (Before During After)

In essence, each opponent has 3 records: 1) the games they played before they played you,2) their record against you, and 3) the games they played after you. Here is a look at these stats for Illinois with one more game left on their regular season schedule.

This is the end of the regular season BDA

The University of Illinois  2023 Football Schedule

Opponent                                            Before      Against         After

Eastern Illinois Univerity                  0-0               0-1               3-8

Kansas                                               1-0               0-1               4-6

Central Michigan University             1-1               0-1               3-6

Nebraska                                             3-0               0-1               3-5 

Penn State                                           3-0              1-0                7-1

Purdue                                                 1-4              0-1               0-6

Michigan                                              4-2              0-1               3-2

Oregon                                                 7-0              1-0                4-0

Minnesota                                           5-3              1-0                1-2

Michigan State                                   4-5              0-1                1-1

Rutgers                                                6-4              0-1               1-0

Northwestern                                       4-7              0-1                0-0

Totals                                               39-26             3-9                30-37

Winning Pct                                     .600              .250                .448

U of I home opponents are in bold.

Illinois opponents on average have played better before playing than after playing them. Illinois Opponents were 39-26 (.600) prior to playing Illinois.  Teams visiting Champaign this year were a cumulative 16-15 (.516) prior to playing the Illini.  Road opponents fared 23-11 (.676)  in games before hosting U of I. 

After beating NU on Saturday, Illinois' 2024 opponents only won 1/4 of the 12 contests against Bielama's boys.  Visitors to Memorial Stadium went  1-6 (.143) and teams playing in their own friendly confines fared much better with 2 wins and 3 losses and a winning percentage of .400. 

The 10 2024 previous opponents split their games this weekend 5-5 bringing the total record of games after playing the Illini to 30-37 (.448). Teams playing at Memorial this year were a collective 15-31(.326) finishing the season.  Home teams also won 15 games after showing Central Illinois Big 10 team hospitality but they did so with only 6 losses and a winning percentage of .714.

 

Next Sunday: Introducing The WHY DFL Index

Illinois Football 2024 Season Analytics Part I

My daughter Lucy began college at the University of Illinois this year.  As a result, I have become a U of I football fan.  I ended up attending 6 home games this year.  While this is certainly not more college football games than I've ever attended, it is 6 more Illinois games than I've ever attended.  

It had been over 30 years since I'd had an every-game interest in a college football team. I have really enjoyed being a college football fan again.   Everybody does being a fan in their own way.  One of my ways is statistics.  Over the next few weeks, I hope to share some Illinois stats that I've been developing.

One difference between college football and professional football is that you generally only play an opponent one time a year.  It is possible to play a team more than once if your conference has a championship game or if you make it to a bowl game.  But, in the regular season, it's just one per customer.  

With that in mind, I've been developing a way of looking at a team's record for the year through how your opponents performed before and after you played them.

In essence, each opponent has 3 records: 1) the games they played before they played you,2) their record against you, 3) the games they played after you. Here is a look at these stats for Illinois with one more game left on their regular season schedule.

University of Illinois  2023 Football Schedule

Opponet                                            Before      Against         After

Eastern Illinois Univerity                  0-0               0-1               3-8

Kansas                                               1-0               0-1               4-5

Central Michigan University             1-1               0-1               3-5

Nebraska                                            3-0               0-1               3-4 

Penn State                                           3-0              1-0               6-1

Purdue                                                 1-4              0-1               0-5

Michigan                                             4-2              0-1               2-2

Oregon                                                7-0              1-0               3-0

Minnesota                                            5-3             1-0               0-2

Michigan State                                    4-5             0-1                1-0

Rutgers                                                6-4             0-1

Northwestern                                       4-7 

Totals                                               39-26           3-8                  25-32

Winning Pct                                     .600            .273                 .439

Illinois plays Northwestern next Saturday at Wrigley Field.  We already know that Northwesterns record will be 4-7 for the before column.  The only thing we don't know yet in the against column is the result of the Northwestern game as it has not been played yet.  Eastern Illinois finished their season yesterday.  All of their other opponents have one more regular season game remaining.  This means that the 10 teams in the middle of their schedule should add one more win or one more loss to their after column next week.  

Illinois opponents on average have played better before playing than after playing them.  Illinois has only played 2 teams this season with a losing record and will face their third in Northwestern on Saturday. Conversely, six teams have losing records since playing the Illini. Illinois opponents on average are playing 160 percentage points better before their game with the Illini than after the event. Illini opponents are only playing .273 when facing Illinois this year.  The final regular season against number will be between .250 and .333 depending on the Northwestern result.

Next Sunday I'll post an updated version of these numbers.  

1-3 Teams going to the playoffs in the 17 game era of the NFL

There have been many changes to the NFL in my lifetime:  

• The first AFL NFL championship game was in 1967 (retconned to be called the Super Bowl in 1969).
•  The merger of the AFL AND NFL into the NFL in 1970.
• The expansion from 26 teams to 28 teams in 1976.
• Switching in 1978 from a 14-game season to a 16-game season, and switching from 8 playoff teams to 10.
• Adding 2 more playoff teams in 1990 for a total of 12
• Expanding from 28 to 30 teams in 1995
• Expanding from 30 to 31  teams in 1999, and then to its current number (32) in 2001.
• With the change to 32 teams in 2001, the conferences were realigned to have 4 divisions with 4 teams each.
• In 2020 2 more playoff teams were added to make for a current total of 14 teams (4 division champions and 3 wild card teams from each conference).

2021 marked the most recent change which was an addition of 1 more regular season game for a total of 17. The 2024 season is the 4th year of the 17-game schedule.  

This latest change has been a little difficult for me to adapt to.  Before I explain why, let me provide some context.   From 1978 to 2020 you could easily divide the 16-game season into 4-game quarters.  After 4 weeks of football, you could look at your team's record and make an educated guess as to how your season might go especially if your team started 0-4  or 1-3.  Only the 1992 Chargers have ever started 0-4 and made it to the playoffs.  Since 1990 only 14% of teams since 1990 have started 1-3 and made it to the playoffs.  The difficulty for me has been getting used to the fact that the 4th-week results are no longer 1/4 of the season's results.  This of course doesn't mean they are not a good indicator of progress.

I was watching the Bears Rams game today where both teams shared a 1-2 record at kickoff.  The announcers were talking about the 4-game indicator and the difficulty of starting 1-3 which one team unless in the case of a tie would be by the end of the game.  After the Bears were victorious moving on to a 2-2 record and leaving the Rams with a 1-3 start, I got to thinking about if the change from 16 to 17 games and the addition of 2 more playoff teams would increase the chances of teams starting 1-3 in making the playoffs.  

In the small sample size of the past 3 completed seasons, there have been 25 teams that started 1-3 (10 in 21-22, 7 in 22-23, and 8 last season). In 21-22, 3 of the 10 (30%) made the playoffs.  This was more than double the average since 1990.  However, no 1-3 team in the 2  17-game seasons that followed has made it to the postseason.  This is a percentage of 12% which is lower than the average since 1990.  It is too early to tell if the 17-game 14 playoff team system will mean more playoff appearances for teams with 1-3 starts.  As it stands now, an average of 1 team per year makes the playoffs with the new format. 

If that stat would hold true this year, I think that team could be the Los Angeles Rams.  Rams Quarterback Matthew Stafford in his 16th season in the NFL looked pretty good against my Bears and all I can say is I'm glad we don't have to see him twice a year anymore like we did when he was with the Lions.  With today's loss, he's just 12-10 against Chicago but that record includes a 6-game win streak against us from September 2013 to January 2016.  

Stafford isn't the only reason why I think the Rams may make the playoffs after a 1-3 start. Like the Bears, the Ram's only losses this year have been on the road.  For the next 3 weeks, they will be playing at home.  The Rams were not near full strength today and hopefully, their injured stars will get healthy during the homestand.  The Rams looked good on both offense and defense today but had to attempt 5 field goals making 4, and scoring only 1 touchdown.  I believe the Rams can improve on their red zone efficiency as the season continues and get it to the level it was last year.

I think the Bears would have had a more difficult chance at making the playoffs with a 1-3 start than the Rams will.  Starting 2-2 doesn't come close to ensuring a playoff spot, but this victory against a solid hungry team is definitely a step in that direction.  

Stats Sunday

This is the last Sunday of the year and as 2020 ends I've decide to start something new.  From time to time on this blog I will write a post that features statistics in some way.  I was thinking about publishing them on Saturdays and calling it Staturday but I decided instead to call it Stats Sunday. It won't be every Sunday. But when I have a stats based post I will try to publish it on a Sunday.  

The Bears beat Jacksonville today to stay alive in the Playoff picture. gula The game was Mitchell Trubisky's 49th start during the regular season. It was his 29th win in 49 starts for a winning percentage of .592.  This got me to thinking.  

This blog began over 11 years ago on December 12 2009. Since then the Bears have played 177 regular season games. They have won 82 of these games and lost 95 for a winning percentage of .462. During that time, the Bears have started 12 different quarterbacks and only one has a better winning percentage in games they started than Trubisky. This is the forgettable Todd Collins who won his only game as a starter for the Bears but was benched in the 3rd quarter in favor of Caleb Hanie. While Collins illustrates that one's winning percentage as a starter is not always indicative of performance,  when related to a larger body of work than a handful of games there is certainly relevance to be gleaned.

Player	Year(s) Started	Wins	Losses	Percentage
Todd Collins	2010	1	0	1.000
Mitchell Trubisky	2017-2020	29	20	.592
Josh McCown	2011.2013	3	3	.500
Jay Cutler	2009-2016	44	46	.489
Nick Foles	2020	2	5	.286
Mike Glennon	2017	1	3	.250
Brian Hoyer	2016	1	4	.200
Matt Barkley	2016	1	5	.167
Jason Campbell	2012	0	1	.000
Chase Daniel	2018,2019	0	2	.000
Jimmy Clausen	2014,2015	0	2	.000
Caleb Hanie	2011	0	4	.000

Most Starts:  Jay Cutler (90)

Most Wins: Jay Cutler (44)

Most Losses: Jay Cutler (46)

Jay Cutler doing his Jim from the Office impression.

Best Winning Percentage: Todd Collins 1.000

Best Winning Percentage (5 or more starts) : Mitchell Trubisky .592

Worst Winning Percentage. Caleb Hanie* .000 

Worst Winning Percentage (5 or more starts): Matt Baarkley  .167

* 4 QBs have a .000 winning percentage during this time.  Hanie gets the distinction of worst because he had more starts than any of the other 3.
Statistics are interesting in that they can tell you a lot and tell you nothing at all at the very same time. I'm not sure what kind of meaning can be extrapolated from the above chart, but  it was kind of fun and a more than a little depressing looking back at a decade of Bears starting quarterbacks.