Illinois Football 2024 Season Analytics Part II

STATS SUNDAY

This is a continuation of last week's Stats Sunday post which can be found here. It is essentially a look at Illinois' Season Record by adding the w/l record of each opponent before they played Illinois, The result of the Illinois game (win or loss), and their record after the Illinois game.  I am calling the stat Opponent BDA (Before During After)

In essence, each opponent has 3 records: 1) the games they played before they played you,2) their record against you, and 3) the games they played after you. Here is a look at these stats for Illinois with one more game left on their regular season schedule.

This is the end of the regular season BDA

The University of Illinois  2023 Football Schedule

Opponent                                            Before      Against         After

Eastern Illinois Univerity                  0-0               0-1               3-8

Kansas                                               1-0               0-1               4-6

Central Michigan University             1-1               0-1               3-6

Nebraska                                             3-0               0-1               3-5 

Penn State                                           3-0              1-0                7-1

Purdue                                                 1-4              0-1               0-6

Michigan                                              4-2              0-1               3-2

Oregon                                                 7-0              1-0                4-0

Minnesota                                           5-3              1-0                1-2

Michigan State                                   4-5              0-1                1-1

Rutgers                                                6-4              0-1               1-0

Northwestern                                       4-7              0-1                0-0

Totals                                               39-26             3-9                30-37

Winning Pct                                     .600              .250                .448

U of I home opponents are in bold.

Illinois opponents on average have played better before playing than after playing them. Illinois Opponents were 39-26 (.600) prior to playing Illinois.  Teams visiting Champaign this year were a cumulative 16-15 (.516) prior to playing the Illini.  Road opponents fared 23-11 (.676)  in games before hosting U of I. 

After beating NU on Saturday, Illinois' 2024 opponents only won 1/4 of the 12 contests against Bielama's boys.  Visitors to Memorial Stadium went  1-6 (.143) and teams playing in their own friendly confines fared much better with 2 wins and 3 losses and a winning percentage of .400. 

The 10 2024 previous opponents split their games this weekend 5-5 bringing the total record of games after playing the Illini to 30-37 (.448). Teams playing at Memorial this year were a collective 15-31(.326) finishing the season.  Home teams also won 15 games after showing Central Illinois Big 10 team hospitality but they did so with only 6 losses and a winning percentage of .714.

 

Next Sunday: Introducing The WHY DFL Index

Team Saturdazzle: What Phrase Do You Hate?

 TEAM SATURDAZZLE

Today, on my Facebook page, I asked: What is a phrase you hate? Here are the answers I received. I have listed the contributors by First Name, Last Initial, and where I  first encountered them.

• Have a good one. Dave R - Mother's Womb, Illinois
• Welcome in. Amy R - Macomb, Illinois
• Behind your back Patrick G - Elk Grove Village, Illinois
• A whole nuther. Valerie T - Peoria, Illinois
• God showed up. Stephanie D - Elgin, Illinois

I will leave my question out there for a little longer if I get any more responses I'll add them here.  

STBFI (Soon To Be Fired Index)

 After today's Bears game, I thought it might be prudent to provide this content sooner rather than later. Anytime one of the 5 Major Chicago sports teams hires a new (non-interim)  head coach or manager I do a process in my head.  In this process, I rank the 5 coaches/ managers including the most recently hire one from 1 to 5 based on which one I feel will lose their job next,   I call this the Soon to be Fired Index or STBFI for short.  When The White Sox hired Will Venable to be their manager on Halloween this year I started putting together the next iteration of the index.  It proved difficult after Mister Obvious at one, but I did my best. 

1. Matt Eberflus Chicago Bears - six straight losses says it all.  I don't think he's going to make it to the Team Holiday party.

2. Luke Richardson Chicago Blackhawks—Richardson has fluctuated between 2nd and 5th on the list in my head since Venable's hiring. My understanding is that the front office is fine with him finishing his contract. However, I don't think anyone in the organization is thrilled that expansion Utah is 3 points ahead of the underperforming Blackhawks as of this writing.

3. Billy Donovan Chicago Bulls - Many feel that Donovan's days are numbered as the Bulls head coach but their current winning percentage of .400  is 5-7 games ahead of full-season win projections.  If the Bulls' almost total lack of defense continues that percentage will go down and cries for Donovan's dismissal will continue at an increasing rate.

4. Will Venable  Chicago White Sox - Generally, the last person hired is usually the last person on this list.  That is good conventional wisdom.  I have reason to hope that given time Venable may be able to help the White Sox navigate past the historically bad season they just experienced.  It seems to me that White Sox management will give him a long leash especially if the team shows any signs of continual (even if it's slow) improvement.  However, if Venable looks like Pedro Grifol reincarnated the aforementioned leash could get mighty short mighty quick. 

5. Craig Counsell Chicago Cubs - 83-79 was not good enough for the Cubs in 2023 so David Ross was fired and Counsell was pilfered from Milwaukee.  In 2024 m the first season with Counsell at the helm, the Cubs achieved the very same 83-79.  Not good enough? Yes.  Bad enough to get Counsell on the hot seat? No, I don't think so.  Counsell should be around for a while. 

The next time one of these 5 men is fired, retires or stops leading their team for any reason, I will post a quick update as to where on the STBFI the former skipper was situated.  I won't post the next STBFI until a full-time replacement is hired.  

Facing The Unknown - Weekly Writers Workshop

 

This weeks prompts for Weekly Writers Workshop hosted by the inimitable (I should know, I try to imitit him all the time, and I am not able) John Holton on his blog, The Sound of One Hand Typing, are:  write a post on the word medications,  write a post in exactly 12 sentences, write about what would induce you to give up life as you know it and face the unknown, tell us the story of your personal experience with rejection, write about a bad habit you'd like to eliminate from your life, and write about a time you had to let go of someone you cared for.  I'm sure you have deciphered by the enormity of the first sentence, and the title of this post which prompts I have chosen.  

There have been at least 5 times in my adult life that I have given up life as I knew it and faced the unknown: moving across the state at the age of 22 to attend university,  moving across the world to serve 2 years as a Southern Baptist missionary in Far East Russia in 1992 a few months after the country had  opened it's doors to Western missionaries, moving across the U.S. to attend seminary, moving across the country again back to my native Illinois to court the woman who would become my wife, and finally moving against the grain by staying at home for 6 years and homeschooling my children. In each of these cases I gave up life as I knew it and faced the unknown; in the first 4 I also had to let people go that I cared for (the 6th prompt).  

What motivated me those 5 times varied by degree but they all had to do with a path I have tried to follow since becoming a follower of Jesus more than 40 years ago and that path has been putting the needs of others before my own.  I am not perfect, so I haven't  been perfectly motivated and I sure haven't perfectly followed this path but the path has certainly led many times to leaving life as I then knew it. 

My first three travels were all based on what I thought would be the life of a missionary.  When I left South Carolina where I had attended seminary for a year to pursue marriage with Amy, I had already become uncertain of a career as a missionary, but one of the myriad reasons I had fallen in love with her was because I had seen in our 7 years of friendship that she was also on the path to putting others needs before her own.  So I envisioned that we would attempt to meet those needs together, which we have for 26 years and continue to do so however imperfectly. 

The needs of my wife and children motivated me as a home educator, they also prepared me for my current job as a substitute teacher. With all our children out of high school, there may come a day when Amy and I, as a couple give up life as we know it and face the unknown. I am certain  that the same motivations that directed in the past would lead us into any new unknown. 

I know would like to lead you back to the known, which is a variety pack of other submissions that can be found in the comments section of  this weeks edition of the Weekly Writer's Workshop. 

Illinois Football 2024 Season Analytics Part I

My daughter Lucy began college at the University of Illinois this year.  As a result, I have become a U of I football fan.  I ended up attending 6 home games this year.  While this is certainly not more college football games than I've ever attended, it is 6 more Illinois games than I've ever attended.  

It had been over 30 years since I'd had an every-game interest in a college football team. I have really enjoyed being a college football fan again.   Everybody does being a fan in their own way.  One of my ways is statistics.  Over the next few weeks, I hope to share some Illinois stats that I've been developing.

One difference between college football and professional football is that you generally only play an opponent one time a year.  It is possible to play a team more than once if your conference has a championship game or if you make it to a bowl game.  But, in the regular season, it's just one per customer.  

With that in mind, I've been developing a way of looking at a team's record for the year through how your opponents performed before and after you played them.

In essence, each opponent has 3 records: 1) the games they played before they played you,2) their record against you, 3) the games they played after you. Here is a look at these stats for Illinois with one more game left on their regular season schedule.

University of Illinois  2023 Football Schedule

Opponet                                            Before      Against         After

Eastern Illinois Univerity                  0-0               0-1               3-8

Kansas                                               1-0               0-1               4-5

Central Michigan University             1-1               0-1               3-5

Nebraska                                            3-0               0-1               3-4 

Penn State                                           3-0              1-0               6-1

Purdue                                                 1-4              0-1               0-5

Michigan                                             4-2              0-1               2-2

Oregon                                                7-0              1-0               3-0

Minnesota                                            5-3             1-0               0-2

Michigan State                                    4-5             0-1                1-0

Rutgers                                                6-4             0-1

Northwestern                                       4-7 

Totals                                               39-26           3-8                  25-32

Winning Pct                                     .600            .273                 .439

Illinois plays Northwestern next Saturday at Wrigley Field.  We already know that Northwesterns record will be 4-7 for the before column.  The only thing we don't know yet in the against column is the result of the Northwestern game as it has not been played yet.  Eastern Illinois finished their season yesterday.  All of their other opponents have one more regular season game remaining.  This means that the 10 teams in the middle of their schedule should add one more win or one more loss to their after column next week.  

Illinois opponents on average have played better before playing than after playing them.  Illinois has only played 2 teams this season with a losing record and will face their third in Northwestern on Saturday. Conversely, six teams have losing records since playing the Illini. Illinois opponents on average are playing 160 percentage points better before their game with the Illini than after the event. Illini opponents are only playing .273 when facing Illinois this year.  The final regular season against number will be between .250 and .333 depending on the Northwestern result.

Next Sunday I'll post an updated version of these numbers.