A Packers & Bears Fan Reaction to the Wild Card Round

I absolute this video. When you get to the 1:42 mark, that was definitely me the entire first half.

If The Playoffs Were Today + 7 Game WHYDFML Index Last Reg Season Week Edition

 4 weeks ago I made this post about a weekly feature I was introducing until the end of the football season.  As often happens on this blog, I did not deliver on the feature.  This was mostly due to situations beyond my control, so I won't dwell on them but will go ahead and pick up the segment where I left off.

With 1 week left in the regular season  here is the NFL Playoff Schedule if the Playoffs Began today...

AFC

1st Round Bye #1 Denver Broncos (+1 seed ) AFC West Division Champion (13-3) +16 

#7 Buffalo Bills (Same seed ) AFC Wild Card3 (11-5) +8 @ #2 New England Patriots (-1 seed since 12/2 AFC East  Division Champion (13-3) +18

#6 Los Angeles Chargers (-1 seed)  AFC Wild Card2 (11-5) +10  @ #3Jacksonville Jaguars (Same Seed) AFC South Division Champion (12-4) +28

# 5 Houston Texans  (Previously  unseeded)  AFC Wild Card 1 (11-5) +29 @ #4 Pittsburgh Steelers (Previously unseeded ) AFC North Division Champion (9-7) +4

NFC

1st Round Bye  #1 Seattle Seahawks  (+4 seeds) NFC West Division Champion (13-3) +26

#7 Green Bay Packers (-1 seed)  NFC Wild Card 1 (9-6-1) -8  @ #2 Chicago Bears -1 seed) AFC North Division Champion (11-5) +6

#6 Los Angeles Rams  (-4 seeds)  NFC Wild Card 2 (11-5) -4 @ #3 Philadelphia Eagles (Same seed)  NFC East Division Champion (11-5) +10

#5 San Francisco 49ers  (+2 seeds)  NFC Wild Card 1 (12-4) +26@ #4 Carolina Panthers  (Previously unseeded ) NFC South Division Champion (8-8) -4

Instant Analysis:  There is not a lot of movement expected or possible for outsiders looking in.The AFC North champion will be the winner of the Steelers Ravens game and the Tampa Buccaneers will only get in the playoffs if they beat the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints beat the Atlanta Falcons.  Otherwise, the Panthers win the NFC South.

I'll

If the Playoffs Were Today ... (With WHYDFML 7 Game Index)

 One of my favorite bits when I was younger was to look at the standings in a sport and proclaim: 'What If the Playoffs were Today?".  

Here in Chicago. much has been made lately of the fact that the Bears are now tied for the best record in the National Football Conference.  Of course that may all change this weekend when the Bears take on the hated Packers.  Every Tuesday from now until the playoffs actually begin,  I hope to show you what the first round of the NFL playoffs would look like if the playoffs would actually begin on that day.

I will also include a stat called the What Have You Done For Me Lately (WHYDFML) 7 Game Index.

The index assigns 1 point for a win and -1 point for a loss over a 7 game period.  It then weights those wins and losses from 7 to 1 most recent to least recent.  The New England Patriots have won all 7 of their last games.  

W W W W W W W

7   6   5   4   3  2   1  

When you add this up they have 1 7 Game WHYDFML of 28

The Bears have won their last 5 games since losing to the Baltimore Ravens and had won the game previous to that so their WHYDFML looks like this:

W W W W W L W

7   6   5   4   3 -2 1

Which makes their index +24

There are many different WHYDFML indices that I use but the 7 game one is very front loaded.  If the Packers prevail against the Bears this weekend, their index will plummet from +24 to +12.  The Packers will not only jump a 1/2 game ahead of the Bears in the standings, but their WHYDFML will increase from +14 to + 18.  

Confused?  It will grow on you.  Or it won't. But until we're sure, here is the NFL Playoff Schedule if the Playoffs Began today...

AFC

1st Round Bye New England Patriots (#1 Seed) AFC East Division Champion (11-2) +28 

Buffalo Bills (#7 Seed) #3 AFC Wild Card (8-4) +6 @ Denver Broncos (#2 Seed) AFC West Division Champion (10-2) +28

Indianapolis Colts (#6 Seed) #2 AFC Wild Card (8-4) -6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (#3 Seed) AFC South Division Champion (8-4) +14

Los Angeles Chargers (#5 Seed) #1 AFC Wild Card (8-4) +12 @ Baltimore Ravens (#4 Seed) AFC North Division Champion (6-6) +12

NFC

1st Round Bye Chicago Bears (#1 Seed) NFC North Division Champion (9-3) +24

San Francisco 49ers (#7 Seed) #3 NFC Wild Card (9-4) +16  @ Los Angeles Rams (#2 Seed) AFC West Division Champion (9-3) +14

Green Bay Packers (#6 Seed) #2 NFC Wild Card (8-3-1) +14 @ Philadelphia Eagles (#3 Seed)  NFC East Division Champion (8-4) Even

Seattlle Seahawks (#5 Seed) #1 NFC Wild Card) (9-3) +18 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#4 Seed) NFC South Division Champion (7-5) -6

Instant Analysis:  The AFC home teams (division champs) all have a higher or equal WHYDFML # than their opponents. The NFC home teams all have a lower WHYDFML than their opponents.

I'll be back next Tuesday with another exciting installment of ...

If the Playoffs were today  ...

An Open Letter to Bob Morgan

 

Bob Morgan

Il State Representative  58th District

Dear Representative Morgan:

A few years ago some well meaning member of the state senate decided to fix something that wasn't broke with  a bill called SB136.  At the time, I was the dedicate home educator of our family home school, and  as the bill  was primarily aimed at home education I rallied against it even writing several posts about it on my blog. At that time I thought I might be done with blogging about misguided bill proposals.  But thanks to you, I get to go at it again.  

 While it may have seemed to you  like a good idea to tie winning records into public funding requests  for sports facilities,  and it certainly  gave you 15 minutes of fame, The question remains why you would set winning records as a requirement for stadiums when it is not requisite for other public funding.  

Public schools, for example, continue to receive public funds even when the students are not showing winning records.  In fact, one can make the argument that we should put funds in schools that are not winning so their winning percentage can increase in years to come.  It's called development. Also ,we spend money on prisons and that money is spent on people who come to have losing records, sometimes in your line of work.  

{{Information |Description={{en|1=Staley Da Bear, the official mascot of the Chicago Bears. }} |Source=http://www.flickr.com/photos/blueyeda73/2988610732/ |Author=[http://www.flickr.com/photos/blueyeda73/ blueyeda73] |Date=10 28, 2008 |Permission=see belo

One of the main  reasons we should be exploring the idea of spending public funding for sports teams like the Bears is to bring more quality opportunities to our area.  If the Bears had a state of the art facilty they woukd be much more likely to be considered for hosting events like the Super Bowl and giving the State of Illinois and the City of Chicago more leverage in winning a future bid for hosting the Olympic games.    Those events would certainly bringg revenue to the owners of the facility but would also bring visitors, jobs and positive notoriety to the area.

If you still insist on making winning records part of government financing of a stadium I'm not sure the requirement of  3 of 5 years winning record your proposal calls for is the best way to go.   According to your plan, a team could win 3 of their last 5 and then have 9 straight losing seasons.  A back end approach seems more feasible. Perhaps after the team that receives financial backing from the state starts playing in their new facility there be a written into the contract that if the team has a combined losing record any 5 consecutive seasons in a 19 year period that they have to pay the state a predetermined amount.  This could either be a percentage of the original financing amount or a percentage of their annual revenue.

If such a plan was in place after government money was used to build what was then called Comiskey Park or Comiskey Park II, there would have only been 1 5 year period of 15 (1995-1999) where the White Sox would have needed to pay a penalty.  During that 19 year period the White Sox went to playoffs 4 times and won the World Series  in 2005.  Those 4 playoff appearances were one more than the 80 seasons played at the original Comiskey. When put that way it seems like it  was money well spent.  

By Tony - Bears vs Chiefs, CC BY-SA 2.0, Link

As for calling your act the BEARS act may make sense to you since Lake Forest, I believe is in your district but to name it  for just one team when many may  want to finance a stadium seems again like a cute way to make a name for yourself.  I would suggest a better acronym and a better plan before calling any more audibles.  

STBFI (Soon To Be Fired Index)

 After today's Bears game, I thought it might be prudent to provide this content sooner rather than later. Anytime one of the 5 Major Chicago sports teams hires a new (non-interim)  head coach or manager I do a process in my head.  In this process, I rank the 5 coaches/ managers including the most recently hire one from 1 to 5 based on which one I feel will lose their job next,   I call this the Soon to be Fired Index or STBFI for short.  When The White Sox hired Will Venable to be their manager on Halloween this year I started putting together the next iteration of the index.  It proved difficult after Mister Obvious at one, but I did my best. 

1. Matt Eberflus Chicago Bears - six straight losses says it all.  I don't think he's going to make it to the Team Holiday party.

2. Luke Richardson Chicago Blackhawks—Richardson has fluctuated between 2nd and 5th on the list in my head since Venable's hiring. My understanding is that the front office is fine with him finishing his contract. However, I don't think anyone in the organization is thrilled that expansion Utah is 3 points ahead of the underperforming Blackhawks as of this writing.

3. Billy Donovan Chicago Bulls - Many feel that Donovan's days are numbered as the Bulls head coach but their current winning percentage of .400  is 5-7 games ahead of full-season win projections.  If the Bulls' almost total lack of defense continues that percentage will go down and cries for Donovan's dismissal will continue at an increasing rate.

4. Will Venable  Chicago White Sox - Generally, the last person hired is usually the last person on this list.  That is good conventional wisdom.  I have reason to hope that given time Venable may be able to help the White Sox navigate past the historically bad season they just experienced.  It seems to me that White Sox management will give him a long leash especially if the team shows any signs of continual (even if it's slow) improvement.  However, if Venable looks like Pedro Grifol reincarnated the aforementioned leash could get mighty short mighty quick. 

5. Craig Counsell Chicago Cubs - 83-79 was not good enough for the Cubs in 2023 so David Ross was fired and Counsell was pilfered from Milwaukee.  In 2024 m the first season with Counsell at the helm, the Cubs achieved the very same 83-79.  Not good enough? Yes.  Bad enough to get Counsell on the hot seat? No, I don't think so.  Counsell should be around for a while. 

The next time one of these 5 men is fired, retires or stops leading their team for any reason, I will post a quick update as to where on the STBFI the former skipper was situated.  I won't post the next STBFI until a full-time replacement is hired.  

Cole Kmet has a big Day for the Bears in London

Sunday was not just another home game for the Chicago Bears. First of all the game started at 8:30 A.M. Central Time which is very early for a Sunday match up. It started this early because the "home" game was played in London, England. The Bears defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 35-16 on Sunday. It was also an unusual game for Bears TE Cole Kmet. Kmet whose Dad played for the Bears among other teams but never played in an actual game grew up in the NW suburbs of Chicago and played football and baseball for St. Viator before going to Notre Dame for college. Cole Kmet hits HR for St. Viator in 2016 Sectional game

Here is Kmet in an interview in his time with ND. Here is footage of Kmet while playing with the Irish.  

 Kmet was drafted by the Bears in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

   

C.K. is kind of a Superman for the Bears.  In addition to playing starting Tight End, He is also the emergency long snapper.  A long snapper is a specialized center who snaps the ball on punts, field goals, and extra points.  The Bears usual long snapper suffered a knee injury in the first half of Sundays game.  That meant that when Kmet scored 2 touchdowns in the 2nd quarter he had to snap the ball on the subsequent plays for the Bears extra points.  

Click here to see Kmet's first touchdown on You Tube.

1-3 Teams going to the playoffs in the 17 game era of the NFL

There have been many changes to the NFL in my lifetime:  

• The first AFL NFL championship game was in 1967 (retconned to be called the Super Bowl in 1969).
•  The merger of the AFL AND NFL into the NFL in 1970.
• The expansion from 26 teams to 28 teams in 1976.
• Switching in 1978 from a 14-game season to a 16-game season, and switching from 8 playoff teams to 10.
• Adding 2 more playoff teams in 1990 for a total of 12
• Expanding from 28 to 30 teams in 1995
• Expanding from 30 to 31  teams in 1999, and then to its current number (32) in 2001.
• With the change to 32 teams in 2001, the conferences were realigned to have 4 divisions with 4 teams each.
• In 2020 2 more playoff teams were added to make for a current total of 14 teams (4 division champions and 3 wild card teams from each conference).

2021 marked the most recent change which was an addition of 1 more regular season game for a total of 17. The 2024 season is the 4th year of the 17-game schedule.  

This latest change has been a little difficult for me to adapt to.  Before I explain why, let me provide some context.   From 1978 to 2020 you could easily divide the 16-game season into 4-game quarters.  After 4 weeks of football, you could look at your team's record and make an educated guess as to how your season might go especially if your team started 0-4  or 1-3.  Only the 1992 Chargers have ever started 0-4 and made it to the playoffs.  Since 1990 only 14% of teams since 1990 have started 1-3 and made it to the playoffs.  The difficulty for me has been getting used to the fact that the 4th-week results are no longer 1/4 of the season's results.  This of course doesn't mean they are not a good indicator of progress.

I was watching the Bears Rams game today where both teams shared a 1-2 record at kickoff.  The announcers were talking about the 4-game indicator and the difficulty of starting 1-3 which one team unless in the case of a tie would be by the end of the game.  After the Bears were victorious moving on to a 2-2 record and leaving the Rams with a 1-3 start, I got to thinking about if the change from 16 to 17 games and the addition of 2 more playoff teams would increase the chances of teams starting 1-3 in making the playoffs.  

In the small sample size of the past 3 completed seasons, there have been 25 teams that started 1-3 (10 in 21-22, 7 in 22-23, and 8 last season). In 21-22, 3 of the 10 (30%) made the playoffs.  This was more than double the average since 1990.  However, no 1-3 team in the 2  17-game seasons that followed has made it to the postseason.  This is a percentage of 12% which is lower than the average since 1990.  It is too early to tell if the 17-game 14 playoff team system will mean more playoff appearances for teams with 1-3 starts.  As it stands now, an average of 1 team per year makes the playoffs with the new format. 

If that stat would hold true this year, I think that team could be the Los Angeles Rams.  Rams Quarterback Matthew Stafford in his 16th season in the NFL looked pretty good against my Bears and all I can say is I'm glad we don't have to see him twice a year anymore like we did when he was with the Lions.  With today's loss, he's just 12-10 against Chicago but that record includes a 6-game win streak against us from September 2013 to January 2016.  

Stafford isn't the only reason why I think the Rams may make the playoffs after a 1-3 start. Like the Bears, the Ram's only losses this year have been on the road.  For the next 3 weeks, they will be playing at home.  The Rams were not near full strength today and hopefully, their injured stars will get healthy during the homestand.  The Rams looked good on both offense and defense today but had to attempt 5 field goals making 4, and scoring only 1 touchdown.  I believe the Rams can improve on their red zone efficiency as the season continues and get it to the level it was last year.

I think the Bears would have had a more difficult chance at making the playoffs with a 1-3 start than the Rams will.  Starting 2-2 doesn't come close to ensuring a playoff spot, but this victory against a solid hungry team is definitely a step in that direction.  

3 Former Bears in 2024 NFL Hall Of Fame Class.

The NFL announced their 2024 Hall of Fame class yesterday in advance of Super Bowl LVIII.  You can watch the announcement on YouTube by clicking here. The last 3 players announces Steve "Mongo" McMichael, Devin Hester, and Julius Peppers all played for the Chicago Bears.

Stats Sunday

This is the last Sunday of the year and as 2020 ends I've decide to start something new.  From time to time on this blog I will write a post that features statistics in some way.  I was thinking about publishing them on Saturdays and calling it Staturday but I decided instead to call it Stats Sunday. It won't be every Sunday. But when I have a stats based post I will try to publish it on a Sunday.  

The Bears beat Jacksonville today to stay alive in the Playoff picture. gula The game was Mitchell Trubisky's 49th start during the regular season. It was his 29th win in 49 starts for a winning percentage of .592.  This got me to thinking.  

This blog began over 11 years ago on December 12 2009. Since then the Bears have played 177 regular season games. They have won 82 of these games and lost 95 for a winning percentage of .462. During that time, the Bears have started 12 different quarterbacks and only one has a better winning percentage in games they started than Trubisky. This is the forgettable Todd Collins who won his only game as a starter for the Bears but was benched in the 3rd quarter in favor of Caleb Hanie. While Collins illustrates that one's winning percentage as a starter is not always indicative of performance,  when related to a larger body of work than a handful of games there is certainly relevance to be gleaned.

Player	Year(s) Started	Wins	Losses	Percentage
Todd Collins	2010	1	0	1.000
Mitchell Trubisky	2017-2020	29	20	.592
Josh McCown	2011.2013	3	3	.500
Jay Cutler	2009-2016	44	46	.489
Nick Foles	2020	2	5	.286
Mike Glennon	2017	1	3	.250
Brian Hoyer	2016	1	4	.200
Matt Barkley	2016	1	5	.167
Jason Campbell	2012	0	1	.000
Chase Daniel	2018,2019	0	2	.000
Jimmy Clausen	2014,2015	0	2	.000
Caleb Hanie	2011	0	4	.000

Most Starts:  Jay Cutler (90)

Most Wins: Jay Cutler (44)

Most Losses: Jay Cutler (46)

Jay Cutler doing his Jim from the Office impression.

Best Winning Percentage: Todd Collins 1.000

Best Winning Percentage (5 or more starts) : Mitchell Trubisky .592

Worst Winning Percentage. Caleb Hanie* .000 

Worst Winning Percentage (5 or more starts): Matt Baarkley  .167

* 4 QBs have a .000 winning percentage during this time.  Hanie gets the distinction of worst because he had more starts than any of the other 3.
Statistics are interesting in that they can tell you a lot and tell you nothing at all at the very same time. I'm not sure what kind of meaning can be extrapolated from the above chart, but  it was kind of fun and a more than a little depressing looking back at a decade of Bears starting quarterbacks.