Illinois Football 2024 Season Analytics Part II

STATS SUNDAY

This is a continuation of last week's Stats Sunday post which can be found here. It is essentially a look at Illinois' Season Record by adding the w/l record of each opponent before they played Illinois, The result of the Illinois game (win or loss), and their record after the Illinois game.  I am calling the stat Opponent BDA (Before During After)

In essence, each opponent has 3 records: 1) the games they played before they played you,2) their record against you, and 3) the games they played after you. Here is a look at these stats for Illinois with one more game left on their regular season schedule.

This is the end of the regular season BDA

The University of Illinois  2023 Football Schedule

Opponent                                            Before      Against         After

Eastern Illinois Univerity                  0-0               0-1               3-8

Kansas                                               1-0               0-1               4-6

Central Michigan University             1-1               0-1               3-6

Nebraska                                             3-0               0-1               3-5 

Penn State                                           3-0              1-0                7-1

Purdue                                                 1-4              0-1               0-6

Michigan                                              4-2              0-1               3-2

Oregon                                                 7-0              1-0                4-0

Minnesota                                           5-3              1-0                1-2

Michigan State                                   4-5              0-1                1-1

Rutgers                                                6-4              0-1               1-0

Northwestern                                       4-7              0-1                0-0

Totals                                               39-26             3-9                30-37

Winning Pct                                     .600              .250                .448

U of I home opponents are in bold.

Illinois opponents on average have played better before playing than after playing them. Illinois Opponents were 39-26 (.600) prior to playing Illinois.  Teams visiting Champaign this year were a cumulative 16-15 (.516) prior to playing the Illini.  Road opponents fared 23-11 (.676)  in games before hosting U of I. 

After beating NU on Saturday, Illinois' 2024 opponents only won 1/4 of the 12 contests against Bielama's boys.  Visitors to Memorial Stadium went  1-6 (.143) and teams playing in their own friendly confines fared much better with 2 wins and 3 losses and a winning percentage of .400. 

The 10 2024 previous opponents split their games this weekend 5-5 bringing the total record of games after playing the Illini to 30-37 (.448). Teams playing at Memorial this year were a collective 15-31(.326) finishing the season.  Home teams also won 15 games after showing Central Illinois Big 10 team hospitality but they did so with only 6 losses and a winning percentage of .714.

 

Next Sunday: Introducing The WHY DFL Index

Illinois Football 2024 Season Analytics Part I

My daughter Lucy began college at the University of Illinois this year.  As a result, I have become a U of I football fan.  I ended up attending 6 home games this year.  While this is certainly not more college football games than I've ever attended, it is 6 more Illinois games than I've ever attended.  

It had been over 30 years since I'd had an every-game interest in a college football team. I have really enjoyed being a college football fan again.   Everybody does being a fan in their own way.  One of my ways is statistics.  Over the next few weeks, I hope to share some Illinois stats that I've been developing.

One difference between college football and professional football is that you generally only play an opponent one time a year.  It is possible to play a team more than once if your conference has a championship game or if you make it to a bowl game.  But, in the regular season, it's just one per customer.  

With that in mind, I've been developing a way of looking at a team's record for the year through how your opponents performed before and after you played them.

In essence, each opponent has 3 records: 1) the games they played before they played you,2) their record against you, 3) the games they played after you. Here is a look at these stats for Illinois with one more game left on their regular season schedule.

University of Illinois  2023 Football Schedule

Opponet                                            Before      Against         After

Eastern Illinois Univerity                  0-0               0-1               3-8

Kansas                                               1-0               0-1               4-5

Central Michigan University             1-1               0-1               3-5

Nebraska                                            3-0               0-1               3-4 

Penn State                                           3-0              1-0               6-1

Purdue                                                 1-4              0-1               0-5

Michigan                                             4-2              0-1               2-2

Oregon                                                7-0              1-0               3-0

Minnesota                                            5-3             1-0               0-2

Michigan State                                    4-5             0-1                1-0

Rutgers                                                6-4             0-1

Northwestern                                       4-7 

Totals                                               39-26           3-8                  25-32

Winning Pct                                     .600            .273                 .439

Illinois plays Northwestern next Saturday at Wrigley Field.  We already know that Northwesterns record will be 4-7 for the before column.  The only thing we don't know yet in the against column is the result of the Northwestern game as it has not been played yet.  Eastern Illinois finished their season yesterday.  All of their other opponents have one more regular season game remaining.  This means that the 10 teams in the middle of their schedule should add one more win or one more loss to their after column next week.  

Illinois opponents on average have played better before playing than after playing them.  Illinois has only played 2 teams this season with a losing record and will face their third in Northwestern on Saturday. Conversely, six teams have losing records since playing the Illini. Illinois opponents on average are playing 160 percentage points better before their game with the Illini than after the event. Illini opponents are only playing .273 when facing Illinois this year.  The final regular season against number will be between .250 and .333 depending on the Northwestern result.

Next Sunday I'll post an updated version of these numbers.  

Cole Kmet has a big Day for the Bears in London

Sunday was not just another home game for the Chicago Bears. First of all the game started at 8:30 A.M. Central Time which is very early for a Sunday match up. It started this early because the "home" game was played in London, England. The Bears defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 35-16 on Sunday. It was also an unusual game for Bears TE Cole Kmet. Kmet whose Dad played for the Bears among other teams but never played in an actual game grew up in the NW suburbs of Chicago and played football and baseball for St. Viator before going to Notre Dame for college. Cole Kmet hits HR for St. Viator in 2016 Sectional game

Here is Kmet in an interview in his time with ND. Here is footage of Kmet while playing with the Irish.  

 Kmet was drafted by the Bears in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

   

C.K. is kind of a Superman for the Bears.  In addition to playing starting Tight End, He is also the emergency long snapper.  A long snapper is a specialized center who snaps the ball on punts, field goals, and extra points.  The Bears usual long snapper suffered a knee injury in the first half of Sundays game.  That meant that when Kmet scored 2 touchdowns in the 2nd quarter he had to snap the ball on the subsequent plays for the Bears extra points.  

Click here to see Kmet's first touchdown on You Tube.

1-3 Teams going to the playoffs in the 17 game era of the NFL

There have been many changes to the NFL in my lifetime:  

• The first AFL NFL championship game was in 1967 (retconned to be called the Super Bowl in 1969).
•  The merger of the AFL AND NFL into the NFL in 1970.
• The expansion from 26 teams to 28 teams in 1976.
• Switching in 1978 from a 14-game season to a 16-game season, and switching from 8 playoff teams to 10.
• Adding 2 more playoff teams in 1990 for a total of 12
• Expanding from 28 to 30 teams in 1995
• Expanding from 30 to 31  teams in 1999, and then to its current number (32) in 2001.
• With the change to 32 teams in 2001, the conferences were realigned to have 4 divisions with 4 teams each.
• In 2020 2 more playoff teams were added to make for a current total of 14 teams (4 division champions and 3 wild card teams from each conference).

2021 marked the most recent change which was an addition of 1 more regular season game for a total of 17. The 2024 season is the 4th year of the 17-game schedule.  

This latest change has been a little difficult for me to adapt to.  Before I explain why, let me provide some context.   From 1978 to 2020 you could easily divide the 16-game season into 4-game quarters.  After 4 weeks of football, you could look at your team's record and make an educated guess as to how your season might go especially if your team started 0-4  or 1-3.  Only the 1992 Chargers have ever started 0-4 and made it to the playoffs.  Since 1990 only 14% of teams since 1990 have started 1-3 and made it to the playoffs.  The difficulty for me has been getting used to the fact that the 4th-week results are no longer 1/4 of the season's results.  This of course doesn't mean they are not a good indicator of progress.

I was watching the Bears Rams game today where both teams shared a 1-2 record at kickoff.  The announcers were talking about the 4-game indicator and the difficulty of starting 1-3 which one team unless in the case of a tie would be by the end of the game.  After the Bears were victorious moving on to a 2-2 record and leaving the Rams with a 1-3 start, I got to thinking about if the change from 16 to 17 games and the addition of 2 more playoff teams would increase the chances of teams starting 1-3 in making the playoffs.  

In the small sample size of the past 3 completed seasons, there have been 25 teams that started 1-3 (10 in 21-22, 7 in 22-23, and 8 last season). In 21-22, 3 of the 10 (30%) made the playoffs.  This was more than double the average since 1990.  However, no 1-3 team in the 2  17-game seasons that followed has made it to the postseason.  This is a percentage of 12% which is lower than the average since 1990.  It is too early to tell if the 17-game 14 playoff team system will mean more playoff appearances for teams with 1-3 starts.  As it stands now, an average of 1 team per year makes the playoffs with the new format. 

If that stat would hold true this year, I think that team could be the Los Angeles Rams.  Rams Quarterback Matthew Stafford in his 16th season in the NFL looked pretty good against my Bears and all I can say is I'm glad we don't have to see him twice a year anymore like we did when he was with the Lions.  With today's loss, he's just 12-10 against Chicago but that record includes a 6-game win streak against us from September 2013 to January 2016.  

Stafford isn't the only reason why I think the Rams may make the playoffs after a 1-3 start. Like the Bears, the Ram's only losses this year have been on the road.  For the next 3 weeks, they will be playing at home.  The Rams were not near full strength today and hopefully, their injured stars will get healthy during the homestand.  The Rams looked good on both offense and defense today but had to attempt 5 field goals making 4, and scoring only 1 touchdown.  I believe the Rams can improve on their red zone efficiency as the season continues and get it to the level it was last year.

I think the Bears would have had a more difficult chance at making the playoffs with a 1-3 start than the Rams will.  Starting 2-2 doesn't come close to ensuring a playoff spot, but this victory against a solid hungry team is definitely a step in that direction.  

NIU Radio broadcast of the NIU-Notre Dame ending (Full) | 2024 College F...

Last Saturday afternoon, NIU went to South Bend, Indiana and upset Notre Dame at home.

This videos shows the last 2 minutes of the game and the audio is the NIU radio broadcast.  The video begins with Notre Dame leading 14-13.

  

3 Former Bears in 2024 NFL Hall Of Fame Class.

The NFL announced their 2024 Hall of Fame class yesterday in advance of Super Bowl LVIII.  You can watch the announcement on YouTube by clicking here. The last 3 players announces Steve "Mongo" McMichael, Devin Hester, and Julius Peppers all played for the Chicago Bears.

60 Years in 60 Days: 1977

 1977: The Year I Led The Packers in Sacks

I was not always the physical specimen that blogs before you. In Jr. High, I was a 6'1 stick figure of a kid whose social awkwardness was matched only by his lack of physical coordination. I was in Jr. high in the 70's when bullying was not only not frowned upon but was an elective in many school districts.  I was teased quite a bit for many things but in the Fall of 1977 and 1978 I got teased on Monday's for what someone else did on Sunday.  That someone just happened to share my name.

Football in the 1970's was a pretty big thing. The biggest football rivalry in my area was that of the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers.  In 1977 Walter Payton the Bears running Back was having a breakout year and was voted MVP of the league by the Associated Press. Payton led the Bears to a 9-5 record that year and their first playoff appearance in my lifetime. The Pack went 4-10 but had one player with a familiar name who helped lead the defense.

His name was familiar to me at least, as his name was Dave Roller.  And as Robin  might say Holy John Jacob Jingelheimer Schmidt Batman, that's my name too

.  

When some of my fellow students at Elk Grove Jr. High heard my name on their televisions on Sunday afternoons, they would let me know about it on Mondays.  It was always funny to them how different a professional football player and  a gawky kid could be even if they had the same name.  It wasn't  a big deal but it did become a bit of a ritual in the Falls of 78 and 79.  There were always a couple of kids in my math class who would comment about how well I played the day before. 

In reality Roller played pretty well for the Packers.  He led them in 1977 with 8 sacks was once carried off by the fans after a Packer victory and I believe was one of the first players in the NFL to celebrate after a tackle with a sack dance.  

I have never met the former NFL player who shares a name with me and my father.  In Jr. High it was just one of many things to be teased about.  But when I think about it now, it's cool to share with your name with someone who achieved excellence in their field.  Even if it's just Lambeau Field.