There have been many changes to the NFL in my lifetime:
- The first AFL NFL championship game was in 1967 (retconned to be called the Super Bowl in 1969).
- The merger of the AFL AND NFL into the NFL in 1970.
- The expansion from 26 teams to 28 teams in 1976.
- Switching in 1978 from a 14-game season to a 16-game season, and switching from 8 playoff teams to 10.
- Adding 2 more playoff teams in 1990 for a total of 12
- Expanding from 28 to 30 teams in 1995
- Expanding from 30 to 31 teams in 1999, and then to its current number (32) in 2001.
- With the change to 32 teams in 2001, the conferences were realigned to have 4 divisions with 4 teams each.
- In 2020 2 more playoff teams were added to make for a current total of 14 teams (4 division champions and 3 wild card teams from each conference).
2021 marked the most recent change which was an addition of 1 more regular season game for a total of 17. The 2024 season is the 4th year of the 17-game schedule.
This latest change has been a little difficult for me to adapt to. Before I explain why, let me provide some context. From 1978 to 2020 you could easily divide the 16-game season into 4-game quarters. After 4 weeks of football, you could look at your team's record and make an educated guess as to how your season might go especially if your team started 0-4 or 1-3. Only the 1992 Chargers have ever started 0-4 and made it to the playoffs. Since 1990 only 14% of teams since 1990 have started 1-3 and made it to the playoffs. The difficulty for me has been getting used to the fact that the 4th-week results are no longer 1/4 of the season's results. This of course doesn't mean they are not a good indicator of progress.
I was watching the Bears Rams game today where both teams shared a 1-2 record at kickoff. The announcers were talking about the 4-game indicator and the difficulty of starting 1-3 which one team unless in the case of a tie would be by the end of the game. After the Bears were victorious moving on to a 2-2 record and leaving the Rams with a 1-3 start, I got to thinking about if the change from 16 to 17 games and the addition of 2 more playoff teams would increase the chances of teams starting 1-3 in making the playoffs.
In the small sample size of the past 3 completed seasons, there have been 25 teams that started 1-3 (10 in 21-22, 7 in 22-23, and 8 last season). In 21-22, 3 of the 10 (30%) made the playoffs. This was more than double the average since 1990. However, no 1-3 team in the 2 17-game seasons that followed has made it to the postseason. This is a percentage of 12% which is lower than the average since 1990. It is too early to tell if the 17-game 14 playoff team system will mean more playoff appearances for teams with 1-3 starts. As it stands now, an average of 1 team per year makes the playoffs with the new format.
If that stat would hold true this year, I think that team could be the Los Angeles Rams. Rams Quarterback Matthew Stafford in his 16th season in the NFL looked pretty good against my Bears and all I can say is I'm glad we don't have to see him twice a year anymore like we did when he was with the Lions. With today's loss, he's just 12-10 against Chicago but that record includes a 6-game win streak against us from September 2013 to January 2016.
Stafford isn't the only reason why I think the Rams may make the playoffs after a 1-3 start. Like the Bears, the Ram's only losses this year have been on the road. For the next 3 weeks, they will be playing at home. The Rams were not near full strength today and hopefully, their injured stars will get healthy during the homestand. The Rams looked good on both offense and defense today but had to attempt 5 field goals making 4, and scoring only 1 touchdown. I believe the Rams can improve on their red zone efficiency as the season continues and get it to the level it was last year.
I think the Bears would have had a more difficult chance at making the playoffs with a 1-3 start than the Rams will. Starting 2-2 doesn't come close to ensuring a playoff spot, but this victory against a solid hungry team is definitely a step in that direction.
